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US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 30

...Pattern Overview And Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Models/Ensembles Continue To Forecast Subtropical Ridging To
Build And Settle Over The Sw Us This Week With Amplified Troughing
Both Upstream Over The Ern Pacific And Increasing In Ernest By
Late Week Downstream As Embedded Shortwaves Move Through The N-Central Plains Into The E-Central Us.

Above Normal Temperatures Will Shift More Into The Wrn Us As Upper Heights Rise To Up To 2.5 Std Deviations Above Normal.

A Highly Amplified Pacific Flow Regime Including An Anchoring/ Blocking Closed Upper Low Off The West Coast Will Keep A Chance Of Showers Around For Especially Coastal Wa/Or.

The E-Central To Ern Us Will Be Increasingly Unsettled As Troughing Supplants In Situ Wavy/Zonal Flow Early/Mid-Week...Increasing The Chance For Showers/Thunderstorms From The Midwest/Oh Valley Eastward.

00z Deterministic Ecmwf/Canadian/Ukmet Forecast Much More Precip Over Ny/New England Thu-Fri Than The Gfs.

Elevated Pw Values Combined With Southerly Flow And Afternoon Heating In The Southeast Us Suggests A Better Than Average Chance Of Precipitation Throughout The Week.

...Guidance And Uncertainty Assessment...

The 00z-06z Gfs Lies Just Outside The Best Clustering Of The 00z
Ecmwf/Ukmet And The Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means This Period...
Though In The Largest Synoptic Sense It Was Within The Ensemble
Envelope.

One Notable Change In The Forecast Was Just North Of Maine Where There Is Finally Better Agreement On Lower Heights As An Upper Low Passes By To The Northeast... Not As Strong As The
Ecmwf From 24 Hrs Ago And Much More In Line With Our Compromise Fcst Yesterday. Run-To-Run Variance With The Smaller Scale Specifics And Interactions With Embedded Features Lead To Varied Lower Atmospheric Focus... Where Changes In Vort Centers And Possible Convection Will Likely Buckle A Smooth Frontal
Progression Eastward. Accordingly... Prefer A Blend Among The 00z
Non-Gfs/Canadian Deterministic Models With The Ensemble Means To Reduce This Error In The Day 3-5 Timeframe... And Then Transition To Just The Ensemble Means By Sun/D7 Though All The Deterministic Models Still Handle The Amplified Synoptic Pattern Fairly Well As The Upper Ridge Over The West Does Not Seem To Be In A Hurry To Fade.


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