US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 29

...Overview And Sensible Weather Highlights...

Models/Ensembles Forecast Subtropical Ridging To Build/Expand Into The Sw Conus Next Week With Troughing Both Up And Downstream With Embedded Shortwaves Moving Through The Plains Into The Great Lakes And Northeast.

Above Normal Temperatures Will Shift From The Plains/Midwest Into The Rockies/Sw Deserts As Upper Heights Rise /2-2.5 Std Deviations Above Normal/.

Upper Low Off The West Coast Will Keep A Chance Of Showers Around For Especially Coastal Wa/Or.

The East Will Be Increasingly Unsettled As Troughing Supplants In
Situ Wavy/Zonal Flow Early/Mid-Week... Increasing The Chance For
Showers/Thunderstorms From The Midwest/Oh Valley Eastward.

Elevated Pw Values Combine With Southerly Flow And Afternoon
Heating In The Southeast Suggesting A Better Than Average Chance
Of Precip Throughout The Period.

...Model Preferences...

The Deterministic Models And Gefs/Ec Ensembles Generally Showed
Good Agreement Throughout The Forecast... With The Exception Being Over The Great Lakes Into The Northeast.

The Ecmwf Has Been Rather Insistent On Amplifying Energy Out Of Northeastern Canada Through Quebec Before Turning The Corner Eastward Just North Of Maine In The Form Of An Upper Low. The Gfs Has It Much Farther North And Weaker. The 00z Canadian Joined With The Ecmwf While The Ukmet Lies Somewhat In Between /But Quicker/. The Parallel Runs Of The Gfs And Gefs Members Showed Little Change From Their Operational Counterparts... Though The Trend In The Gefs Ensembles May Be Toward Lower Heights Just North Of Maine.

Given The Continuity Of The Ecmwf Coupled With The Trend In The Ecens Mean Toward A Closed Low Solution /Weaker Than The Ecmwf/... Wpc Used A Majority Weighting Of The 00z Ecens Mean.

This Would Mean A Farther North Position Of The Frontal Boundary In The Northeast Than The Op Ecmwf Shows As It Falls On The Southern Side Of The Ec Ensemble Spread.

Thereafter... The Gefs/Ecens Both Come Together For Fri-Sat/D6-7
Showing Ridging Along The Rockies And Troughing Into The Great
Lakes/Oh Valley... Though The Ecens Lies Just Ahead Of The Gefs.
Given The Spread Seen In The Prior Days... A Compromise Between
The Gefs/Ecens Was Used For Late In The Period.

Lastly... Nhc Continues To Monitor The Eastern Pacific For Tropical Development... And Coordinated Sfc Low Positions Will Be Updated For The Final Progs.


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