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US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 2

...Pattern Overview And Preferences...

A Combination Of Nern Pac And Initial Wrn Conus Energy Should
Consolidate Over The Nrn Plains By Late In The Week And Then Drift
Ewd/Newd... While Amplification Of An E-Cntrl Pac Trough Late In
The Period Should Encourage Ridging Off The West Coast And
Development Of A Trough Near 120w By Day 7 Sun.

Meanwhile A Fairly Strong Ridge Should Build Over Portions Of The Mid Atlc With Above Normal Hgts Persisting Through Next Weekend.

Models/Ensembles Maintain Reasonable Agreement And Continuity With Most Of The Broader Aspects Of The Fcst But Continue To Differ
With Some Details That Would Have Impacts On A More Regional/ Local Scale... In Particular With Evolution Over The Plains And Flow
Around The Nrn Periphery Of The Ern Ridge. A Blend Of Gefs/Ecmwf
Ensemble Means Maintains Strict Wpc Continuity And Still Reflects
The Most Agreeable Aspects Of Medium Range Guidance While Waiting For Even Better Clustering In The Models.

...Guidance/Uncertainty Evaluation...

Aside From The 00 Utc Ecmwf Becoming More An Outlier With Details
Across The N-Central Us Compared To The Gfs And Gfs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means By Days 6/7...Not A Lot Has Changed With The General Spread Of Solns For The Consolidation Of Wrn Conus/Nern Pac Mid Lvl Energy Into A Closed Low Over The Nrn High Plains By Fri Or The Assoc Sfc System. Recent Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means Still Offer A Good Intermediate Soln Given The Gfs/Ecmwf Positions Relative To The Full Guidance Spread And Respective Biases.

With The Trough Which Gefs/Ecmwf/Cmc Ensemble Means Develop Near 120w By Day 7 Sun... Recent Gfs Runs Including The 00z Version Differ The Most From Consensus As They Are Much Flatter With All But The Srn Part Of The Trough. This Likely Has Some Influence On The Faster Downstream Timing In The Gfs By Next Weekend.

Over The Nern States There Is Still Some Uncertainty Regarding
Frontal Posn From Late This Week Onward... Due To Considerable
Spread In Handling Features Within Ern Canada Flow As Well As
Shrtwv Energy Crossing Sern Canada/Nrn New England. Latest Gfs
Runs Have Trended More Amplified Aloft And Swd With The Mean
Frontal Bndry While Recent Ecmwf Runs Have Backed Away From
Earlier Amplified Solns. Most Other Guidance Including Ensemble
Means Keep The Sfc Front Farther Nwd.

As Per Its Bias With Low Latitude Features... The Canadian Model
Is Much More Enthusiastic Than Other Guidance With A Sfc
Reflection Near The Southeast In Response To A Weakness Fcst To
Evolve S Of The Mid Atlc Ridge Aloft. Thus Far The Cmc Scenario
Is Well In The Minority Of Ensemble Guidance.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Expect Convection To Be Quite Active Over A Broad Area From The
Nrn Rockies Into The Ms Valley And Swd Through The Srn Plains In
Response To Energetic Evolution Sfc/Aloft. Some Tstms Will Likely Produce Hvy To Excessive Rnfl And Severe Weather Is Also A Possibility.

Locations From The Grtlks To Northeast May Also See Some Activity Early In The Period With A Warm Front Lifting Through The Region... And Later With A Sfc Front Whose Posn Over New England Remains In Question.

Ely Flow At The Sfc And A Weakness Aloft Will Likely Support Persistent Rnfl Focused Over The Ern/Srn Parts Of The Fl Peninsula Through The Period.

Pcpn Over The Nrn Half Or 2/3 Of The West Should Gradually Taper Off With Time. Temps Over The West Should Moderate Next Weekend After Highs Generally 5-15 F Below Normal Wed-Fri. Some Of This Cool Air Will Extend Into The Nrn Plains By Late This Week. Anomalies With Very Warm Daytime Highs Over The East Should Be Greatest From The Grtlks/Upr Oh Valley Into Parts Of The Northeast.


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