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US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 18

The Global Numerical Models Indicate The Continuation Of A Very
Active, Baroclinic Regime For Early Summer Across The United
States At The Medium Range.

Relied On The Mass Fields Of The Most Recent European Centre Ensemble Mean As A Synoptic Template, With That Mean Having Shown The Strongest Run-T0-Run Continuity Of The Guidance.

Deepened The Surface Wave Near The Atlantic Benchmark Toward The Deterministic Ecmwf Strength Day 3, Figuring That It Would Get An Extra Kick From The Convective Feedback Process.

A Retrogression Of The Longwaves Is Forecast This Period, With The
Upper Ridge Pulling Back To The Rockies, And The Trough Over The
Pacific Northwest Receding Offshore.

Expect Three Main Focuses For Rainfall.

The First Will Be The Monsoon Around The Smaller Than Normal Radius Of The Subtropical High Into West Texas.

The Second Will Be The Convectively-Enhanced Synoptic Complex Crossing The Central Plains, Ohio Valley, And Eventually The Mid Atlantic Region.

The Third Will Be The New Trough Off The Northwest As It Edges Onshore During The Second Half Of The Period.


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