US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 17

...Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

Conus Trough/Ridge/Trough Pattern Should Largely Hold During The
Medium Range Period... But Trending To Lower Heights Along The
West Coast And Slowly Rising Heights In The East.

Troughing Initially Over The Pac Nw Thu/D3 Should Lift Into South Central Canada And Head Eastward... Dragging A Front Through The Northern Tier.

To The South... 500mb Heights Associated With The Upper Ridge Should Be Above Normal... Supporting Hot Temperatures In The
Sw/Great Basin/Southern Plains.

The Guidance Generally Shows Good Agreement Throughout The Period... Though The 00z-06z Gfs Tended To Stray From The Larger Clustering With A Low Moving Off The Northeast Coast Fri/D4. Did Not Prefer Its Closer/Deeper Solution To Se Ma.

Thereafter... The Models/Ensembles Showed Good Agreement With Lowering Heights In The Nw As An Upper Low Drops Southward
Out Of The Gulf Of Alaska. Trended To A Blend Of The 00z Ecens
Mean And 06z Gefs Mean As Both Have Been Nudging Toward A Slower Solution In Tandem... So Did Not Prefer One Mean Over The Other Aloft.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Precip In The Northeast Thu-Fri/D3-4 Will Lift Out As The System
Exists Into The Atlantic... With A Healthy Swath Of Precip /One To
Two Inches/ Possible Over The Mid-Atlantic Along And To The North
Of The Stationary Frontal Boundary.

To The West... Lee Trough And Frontal System Convergence Over The Northern To Central Rockies/Plains And Upper Divergence Maxima Emerging From The Northern And Central Rockies To The Plains Favors Development Of Mesoscale Convective Systems... Which Are Difficult To Pin Down In The Qpf Progs... But Will Play An Active Role In The Forecast. Several Inches Are Possible Given A Repetitive Track... But Otherwise The Qpf Can Vary Quite Dramatically Across Relatively Short Distances.

Progression Eastward Toward The Appalachians Will Remain A Threat Through The Weekend As The Sfc Front Slowly Moves
Eastward.

Lastly... By Sun-Mon/D6-7... Precip Should Enter Into Wa/Or... Especially The Terrain... But Much Less So To The East Of The Mountains.


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