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US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 16

...Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

The Mid-Upper Level Flow Medium Range Pattern Continues To Show
Troughs Dominating The Wrn And Ern Us With Ridging Spread Out Over The Southern To Central Plains To The Mid-Lower Ms Valley.

The Models And Ensembles Are In Better Than Average Agreement On The Wave Pattern With Primarily Amplitude Differences In The Western And Eastern Troughs. The 00z Ecmwf/Gefs/Canadian (And Naefs) Ensemble Means Continue To Show Excellent Agreement And
Continuity...Making The Overall 500 Mb Pattern Predictability Above Normal.

The Days 3-7 Wpc Forecast Was Derived From A Blend Of The 00 Utc
Gfs/Ecmwf/00z Gefs Mean/00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. The 06z Gfs
Showed Good Continuity From Its 00z Run Except For Stronger
Frontal Wave Development In The Offshore Waters East Of The Mid
Atlantic States Fri.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Strong And Persistent Mid-Upper Anticyclone Over The Southern
Plains To The Lower Ms Valley Spell Hot Conditions Across The
Southern To Central Plains And Mid-Lower Ms Valley. Temperatures
Are Fcst To Be 5-10 Degrees Above Normal (Locally In The Lower
Teens Above Normal) With Lower Elevation Areas Of The Southwest To Southern Plains Reaching Over 100 Degrees For Daytime Highs.

Lee Trough And Frontal System Convergence Over The Nrn To Central Rockies/Plains And Upper Divergence Maxima Emerging From The Nrn And Central Rockies To The Plains Favors Development Of Mesoscale Convective Convective Systems. These Systems Are Expected To Develop And Roll Across The N-Central Plains And Mid-Upper Ms Valley..Oh Valley And Portions Of The Central-Southern Appalachians And Mid-Atlantic/Sern Us.

The Low Level Cyclone Tracking Across Northern New England Into
Midweek Will Produce Moderate Rainfall...Winding Down Thu As The
Cyclone Departs Thu Into The Canadian Maritimes.


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