US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 15

...Pattern Overview And Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Medium Range Mid-Upper Level Flow Pattern Is Highlighted By
Troughs Dominating The Wrn And Ern Us With Ridging Over The Center Of The Country.

This Pattern Should Favor Colder Temps And Unsettled Weather Permiating Out From The Nw Us And Summertime Heating Centered Over The South-Central States.

Overtop...A Periodic Diurnal Convection Pattern Sets Up With Some Locally Heavy Downpour Potential Focusing Within Slow Moving But Well Supported Baroclinic Zones With Plenty Of Available Energy Across The North-Central Us And Sewd As Waves Track/Dig Into A Mean Ern Us Upper Cool Trough In The Wake Of Well Organized Lead Low Track That Will Focus Larger Scale Nern Us Qpf Potential Tue-Thu.

...Guidance And Uncertainty Assessment...

Wpc Medium Range Guidance Was Primarily Derived From A Blend
Dominated By The 18 Utc Gfs/Gefs Mean And 12 Utc Naefs Mean.

Forecast Spread And Uncertainty Is Generally Below Normal Over The
Nation Next Week Except Notably With The Handling Of Impulses
Feeding Into The Ern Us Upper Mean Trough.

The Wpc Blend Favors A Compatable Cluster Of Solutions On The More Amplified Side Of The Full Envelope Of Solutions...In Contrast To The 12 Utc Ecmwf/Ukmet And To A Lesser Extent The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. This Seems Reasonable Considering Ample Wrn Us Trough/Central Us Ridge Couplet Amplitude Common To Guidance And Recent Flow Trends.


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