US Final Extended Forecast thru Jul 7

...Pattern Overview And Preferences/Uncertainty...

The Medium Range Forecast Aloft Will Continue To Feature An
Amplified And Anomalously Hot Wrn Conus Ridge That Should Weaken Slightly Over The Next Week...And A Strong Wrn Atlantic Ridge Whose Westward Expansion Should Gradually Weaken An Initially Highly Amplified Trough Centered Over The Plains/Ms Valley.

While Not As Bad As Has Been The Case The Past Few Days... Greatest Model And Ensemble Spread Exists From The Ern Pac Across Canada And Nrn Conus Latitudes With Highest Uncertainty In Resulting Sensible Weather Impact Over The Nwrn Conus Into Nrn Plains.

The Wpc Days 3-7 Forecast Was Primarily Derived From A Blend Of
The 06 Utc Gfs/Gefs Mean And 00 Utc Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. These Compatible Pieces Of Guidance More Strongly Than Consensus Maintain The Wrn Atlantic/East Coast Ridge And The Nrn Periphery Of The Wrn Us Ridge. This Remains A Good Bet Considering Current Feature Amplitude Inertia...And Latest Model And Water Vapor Imagery Trends. This Solution Also Maintains Good Wpc Continuity.

...Guidance Evaluation...

Complexity Of Flow Over The Ern Pac/Wrn Canada Suggests It May
Take A Little While To Resolve Meaningful Detail Differences Across Srn Canada And The Nrn Conus. By The D+8 Time Frame Multi-Day Means Generally Agree Upon A Positive Height Anomaly Center Near The Bc Coast And Negative Center Ne Of Hudson Bay...And Combined Teleconnections Relative To These Features Favor A Broad Mean Trough Over Central-Ern Canada And Extending Into The Extreme Nrn Conus.

By Late In The Period The Preferred Forecast Blend Leads Into This Expected Pattern Fairly Well While Accounting For The Considerable Spread That Exists And Respecting Persistence Of The Wrn Conus And Wrn Atlantic Ridges. What Details Exist For The Central Conus Weakness Aloft Are Fairly Small In Scale And Typically Not Well Resolved 3-7 Days Out In Time.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Hot Wrn Us Ridge May Prove Slow To Weaken Over The Upcoming Week...But There Is More Than Average Uncertainty For Temps Over Nrn Parts Of The West. A Mean Frontal Zone Expected To Settle Near The Us-Canadian Border May Support Some Convection In Its Vicinity By Fri-Sun. Meanwhile The Srn Rockies Should See Diurnal Convection With Some Activity Extending Into The Srn Plains.

Continue To Expect A Broad Area Of Rainfall Over The Ern Half Of
The Conus... Aided By Moist Flow Around The Strengthening Deep
Layer Ridge Over The Wrn Atlantic. For A Period Of Time Rainfall
May Be Enhanced Near The Srn Appalachians Due To Terrain Effects
While The Gulf Coast May See Some Enhancement As Well. There Is
Reasonable Continuity From Guidance That The Axis Of Rainfall
Should Shift Wwd With The Expansion Of The Wrn Atlantic Ridge
Aloft In A Pattern Albeit With Dereasing Surface Convergence
Definition. Areas Where Rainfall Is Most Persistent Should See
Near To Below Normal Daytime Temps...While The Surface Pattern
Seems To Favor Above Normal Readings From New England Into The Nrn Mid Atlantic.


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