US Final Extended Forecast thru Jul 21

Expansive Ridge In The East Transitions After Day 5 To Lower Heights In The Great Lakes And Ohio Valley...With A Longwave
Trough And Impressive Cold Pool Forming In East Central Canada.

In The West...The Four Corners Anticyclone Retrogrades Gradually
West-Northwestward Into North Central Nevada. This Allows Another
Thermal Trough Episode To Push Westward To The Pacific Coast.

Model Preferences...

The 13/18z And 14/00z Cycle Of The Gfs/Gefs Mean Solutions Are
Decidedly Faster Across East Central Canada With The Embedded
Energy Shearing Eastward And Development Of A Secondary H5
Circulation Across Northern Manitoba/Saskatchewan Around Day 6/7.
The Deterministic Gfs Runs Are Very Different Than Their Respective Means After Day 5 And Will Be Dismissed From The Blend Preference. In A Nutshell...Will Follow More Of The Ecmwf Solution
With The Lead Front (Day 3/4) Losing Momentum And Fracturing Along The Appalachians With Its Forward Momentum Tied Directly To The Initial Burst Of Convection Developing Along It.

It Will Be The Secondary Front Developing Underneath The Deep Occlusion Invof Eastern Hudson Bay (Day 5 And Beyond) That Eventually Deepens The Cooler Airmass And Presses Eastward And Southward To The Atlantic Shoreline And Through The Ohio Valley Respectively. Will Maintain About A 30% Weight Of The 14/00z Gefs Mean To Maintain Continuity With The Previous Graphics. This Preference Also Applies To The Upper-Level Trough Offshore Of The West Coast.

The Last Two Cycles Of The Ec Ensemble Means (13/12z And 14/00z)
Do Trend Southwestward With A Closed H5-H85 Circulation But Its
(The Ecmwf) Deterministic Guidance Is Tightly Clustered Inside
Those Means. The 14/00z Gefs Means Are Closer To The Ec/Ecmwf
Solution And Preference...But The 14/00z Deterministic Gfs Solution Deviates Away Sufficiently (A Faster Southwestward Progression Of A Weak Cutoff)) To Eliminate It From The Mix On/After Day 4 (18/12z).

The Downwind Results Of This Quicker/Faster Gfs Solution Is To Allow A Sharper Mid-Level Trough Passage Through Bc/Puget Sound On Day 6. In This Region Of The Globe...The Shearing Action (On The Southwest Side) Or Base Of The Upper-Trough Axis Resembles More Of A Tutt And Tutt Cell Configuration Than Anything Else. It Wouldnt Be A Stretch For Mid July In The East Pac To See This Emerging/Developing As A Mainstay Feature Aloft.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

Great Lakes...Upper Ohio Valley To New England/Northeast...Should
See An Appreciable Uptick In The Frequency Of Diurnal Convection
And A Cooler/Drier Airmass Working West To East.

Another Warmup Is Expected Along The California And Oregon Coast
Late In The Period With Residual Monsoon Moisture Continuing To
Track Gradually Northwestward Through The Period Around The
Western Flanks Of The Anticyclone.

Northern Plains And Rockies Continue To Take On The Brunt Of The
Monsoon Flow Along The Northern Periphery Of The Western

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