US Final Extended Forecast thru Aug 4

The Main Feature Of The Medium Range Period Remains A Relatively
Stable Pattern With A Trough Along The Northwest Coast...An Upper
Ridge Spanning The Southwest Us Toward The Central Rockies... And A Tendency For Shortwave Systems To Drop Southeastward From Central Canada Toward The Midwest And Northeast Sectors Of The Country.

This Remains To Be Reflected In The Depiction Of Several Cold
Fronts Marching Eastward From The Northern Plains Across The
Midwest/Ohio Valley And Across The Northeast. With The Exception
Of The Southwest Corner Of The Nation...This Is Not Your Typical
Summer Heat/Drought Pattern And Is Rather Quite Moderate...And
With The Exception Of California/The Great Basin And Southern
Texas...A Fairly Moist Period.

The Mean Weather Pattern Is Reflected Fairly Uniformly By The
Overnight Ensemble Means With Few If Any Differences Over The
Continental Us From Day 3 To Day 7/Wednesday To Sunday. With The Individual Overnight Models...Only Minor Differences Are Apparent
On Days 3 To 4 But Get A Bit More Murky On Days 5 To 7/Friday To
Sunday As The Resolution Of A Couple Different Shortwave
Systems...One Rotating Southeastward Across South Central Canada
Toward The Great Lakes And The Other Moving Inland Across The West From The Pacific Northwest Create Some Inter Model Differences. A Fairly Standard Blend Of The 00z Ecmwf/Gfs And Their Respective Ensemble Means...Except 06z Gefs Mean...Provides Somewhat Of An Averaged Solution With A Slight Edge To The Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Since The Gfs Seems To Be Faster On Some Systems Than The Means Toward The End Of The Forecast.

On Wednesday...High Pressure Moves Off The East Coast As A Weak
Area Of Low Pressure Moves Eastward From The Mid Mississippi
Valley/Tennessee Valley With Showers/Thundershowers Moving
Eastward Toward The Middle Atlantic States. The Next In A Series
Of Cold Fronts Keeping The Heat At Bay For Much Of The Northern
Quadrant Of The Nation Should Be Sliding Across The Northern
Plains States With Another Shot Of Cooler Air Over North Central
Canada Beginning Its Run South And Eastward.

By Thursday...The Weak Wave Has Moved Eastward Toward Virginia
With Showers Overspreading The East Coast While The Next Front
Moves Across The Midwest And The Ohio Valley...Accompanied By
Scattered Showers/Thundershowers. Summer Heat Is Confined To The Southeast/South Central And Southwestern States.

On Friday...Low Pressure Has Moved Just South Of New England With
A Small Bubble Of High Pressure Over The Ohio Valley/Northern
Appalachians. Another Area Of Low Pressure Is Likely To Develop
Over The Central Plains Out Ahead Of The Next Cold Front Moving
Southeastward Across The Northern Plains States...With
Unseasonably Cooler Air. While Showers Are Likely To Fall Over New
England Before Clearing...A Significant Area Of Showers/Storms
Will Likely Develop Over The Central Plains/Northern Mississippi
Valley With Some Of The Rains Likely To Be Heavy...As Well As Some
Showers Across The Northwest.

By Saturday...It Is Not Clear How The Area Of Low Pressure Over
The Plains Will Evolve...But It Is More Likely That The Strong Cold Front Over The Northern Plains Will Continue South And Eastward Across The Midwest With Showers And Thunderstorms Ahead
Of The Front. There May Be A Surface Wave Developing Along The
Front That Might Indicate An Enhanced Chance For More Significant
Rainfall Across The Ohio Valley. A Relatively Strong Cell Of Cool
High Pressure Appears Likely To Drop Southward Over The Northern
Plains States. In Addition...As Shortwave Energy Moves Eastward
From The Pacific Northwest...Showers Could Develop Over Much Of
The Northern Rockies.

On Sunday...If Current Model Trends Are Correct Although There Are
Now More Differences In Forecast Speeds...The Cold Front Will Move
Across The Northeast And Middle Atlantic States And Much Of The
Northern Third Of The Country Will Find Itself With Relatively Cool Conditions For Early August...Feeling More Typical For Autumn Than Summer. Precipitation Is More Likely To Occur Along The Frontal Boundary Extending From The Southern Plains Eastward Across The Tennessee Valley Into The South Atlantic States.

Confidence For Todays Forecast Is Rated As Above Average Since
There Has Been Relatively Good Continuity Over The Past Couple Of

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