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US Final Extended Forecast thru Aug 3

There Are No Significant Changes To The Medium Range Forecast
Today.

A Series Of Shortwaves Will Continue To Retain A Modest Mean Trough Over The North Central To Northeast United States With A Parade Of Shortwaves And Fronts Keeping The Chances For
Showers/Thundershowers And Relatively Mild Temperatures Continuing Across The Northern Plains Across The Midwest To The Northeast During The Period.

Meanwhile...A Mean Upper Ridge Will Continue To Be Centered Across New Mexico/Texas With The Ridge Axis Extending Northward Across The Rockies. From The Southern Great Basin/Rockies Across The Southwest Into Texas...A Mostly Hot Period Is Forecast Thru The Period Although Monsoonal Moisture Will Continue To Work Its Way In And Generate Scattered Afternoon And Evening Thundershowers.

Over The Pacific Northwest...A Series Of Shortwave Troughs Will
Make Its Way Eastward Bringing Relatively Cool And Possibly Wet
Conditions Especially Across Montana Later In The Forecast.

The Tropics Appear To Be Relatively Inactive During This Period Except Over Hawaii Where Tropical Storm Flossie Or Its Remnants Will Affect The Islands On Day 3/Tuesday. Please See Nhc Advisories
For More Detailed Information.

A Cool Airmass For Late July Will Cover The Northeast On Tuesday
While Real Summer Heat Will Mostly Be Confined To The Southern
Plains/Southwest And Southeast.

The Pattern Continues To Be Marked By A Series Of Cold Fronts Progressing Eastward From The Northern Plains Across The Midwest And Ohio Valley And Then Across The Northeast.

While High Pressure Covers The Northeast On Tuesday...The Next
Front Is Located Over The Northern Plains On Day 3...While By
Wednesday/Day 4...Low Pressure Along A Front Over The Lower Ohio
Valley Will Increase The Chances For Showers/Thundershowers Across The Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic States While The Next Cold Front
Moves Into The Midwest.

On Thursday/Day 5...Low Pressure And Showers/Thundershowers Are Located Over The Mid Atlantic States While A Series Of Cold Fronts Have Advanced Across Ohio Valley And Mid Atlantic States.
Another Cold Front Begins A Southward Trek Across South Central Canada.

By Friday/Day 6...High Pressure Builds Again Over The Ohio Valley
And East Coast While Another Wave Of Low Pressure Develops Over
The Central Plains With Showers/Thunderstorms Developing Eastward Across The Mid Mississippi Valley And Plains States.

Meanwhile...The Canadian Front Continues Southeastward Bringing
Another Shot Of Cooler Air Across The Northern Plains States.

By Day 7/Saturday...The Same Pattern Continues With Low Pressure
Moving Eastward Across The Ohio Valley With The Probability Of
Showers/Thundershowers Again Increasing Across The Ohio Valley And Mid Atlantic States While Unseasonably Cool Air Again Filters
South And Eastward Across The Northern Plains And Midwest.

The Mean Pattern Throughout The Forecast Is Quite Consistent
Across The Model Ensemble Suite With The Usual Differences In
Shortwave Speed And Location Across The Northern Us. With No Clear Winner In Terms Of Any Given Model...Especially Comparing The Gfs/Ecmwf Ensemble Runs...The Forecast Is Based On A General Combination Of Recent Gfs/Ecmwf And Ensemble Forecasts With The Operational Components Representing A Slightly Larger Portion Of The Blend Through Day 4 And The Ensemble Means Representing A Slightly Larger Portion On Days 6 And 7.

Confidence With Todays Forecast Can Be Stated As Above Average ...Even Toward The End Of The Period.


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