US Final Extended Forecast thru Aug 18

The Global Numerical Models Are Indicating That The Amplification
Of The Pattern Across The United States Will Peak Early In The
Medium Range, With Relatively High Heights Remaining Over The West And Low Heights In The East.

There Are Signs That A Diffuse, Closed Upper Low Could Form In The East By Day 7, Which Would Increase The Chances Of Rainfall Significantly Over Much Of The Region.

The Ensemble Means Continue To Sidestep "Runaway" Shortwave Development, With The Biggest Uncertainty How Deep A Surface Low Off The Mid Atlantic Coast Might Be At The End Of The Period. The 00z/11 And 06z/11 Gfs Were The Most Aggressive With That Feature.

Rainfall Over The Central And Western United States Will Be Harder
To Come By, With Warm-Advection Showers Over The Great Plains, And Diminishing Monsoonal Convection Over The Southwest.


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