US Final Extended Forecast thru Aug 11

...Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

Wpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have Been Primarily Derived From A Composite Blend Of 40% 00 Utc Ecmwf With 20% Each Of The 06 Utc Gfs And 00 Utc Gfs/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean To Smooth The Rough Edges.

This Solution Leans Toward The More Amplified And Less Progressive Side Of The Full Envelope Of Solutions Following Latest Guidance Trends/Water Vapor Imagery And With Consideration Of The Overall Amplified Large Scale Flow Pattern In Place.

Most Guidance Maintains Reasonable Continuity/Clustering With The Larger Scale Pattern...But Differences Remain Which Would Have Meaningful Impact On A Local/Regional Scale Leaving Overall Predictability To About Normal Levels.

A Mean Ridge To The Nw Of Hudson Bay For Most Of The Period Will
Support An Unseasonably Amplified Ern Canada Into Ern Conus Mean Trough Anchored By Closed Lows Tracking Across The Ern Half Of Srn Canada. Forecast Spread With Timing And Closed Low Details...And To Some Degree Details Of Shortwave Energy Ejecting From The Wrn Conus...Will Impact Surface Details Over The Central-Ern Conus.

Away From The Ern Noam Trough...By The Latter Half Of The Period
An East-West Oriented Srn Tier Ridge Is Forecast To Gradually
Strengthen Over The Srn Plains And Build Toward The Srn Rockies.

A Ridge Axis Should Also Extend Nwwd Over/Near The Cntrl-Nrn
Rockies. Meanwhile An Anomalously Amplified Trough With Embedded Closed Low Along The West Coast Should Achieve Its Greatest Depth Late This Week Before Gradually Weakening. Differences With These Features Are Fairly Modest With Minimal Impact On Surface Features.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

A Lead Surface Front Heading From The Midwest Into The East And
Settling Into The South-Central Conus Through Central-Nrn High
Plains Now Along With An Increasingly Supported Reinforcing Cold
Front In Its Wake...It Is August Right?...Will Be The Most Prominent Focus For Convection This Period With Some Locally Heavy Qpf.

Shortwave Energy Ejecting From The West And A Possible Frontal Wave May Enhance Rainfall Over Some Areas From The Mid Ms
Valley Into The Northeast/Nrn Mid Atlantic During The First Half Of The Period.

Over The High Plains Low Level Upslope Flow May Contribute To Some Areas Of Convection...While The Upper Trough Along/Off The West Coast Could Generate Cooling Along With An Isolated Shwr/Tstm.

Continue To Expect Above Normal High Temps To Be Confined Mainly To The Srn Plains And Interior Northwest.

The Core Of Coolest Air Relative To Normal Should Be Over The
Nrn-Central Plains With Daytime Readings At Least 10-15f Below
Average...With Cooling Spreading Southward And Eastward With
Frontal Advance And Reinforcement.


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