US Final Extended Forecast thru Aug 10

...Medium Range Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty
Assessment...

Models And Ensembles Aloft Maintain An Amplified Nw Canada Ridge
And East-Central Noam Mean Trough Pattern.

Within This Trough A Closed Low Tracking Sw Of Hudson Bay Across Ontario/Quebec Has A Significant Influence On Central-Ern Us Weather Next Week As An Associated Surface Low Forces A Potent Reinforcing Cold Front Through The North-Central And Ern Us With A Stalled Lead Front Also Acting As A Lingering Qpf Focus.

Elsewhere A Mean Ridge Will Persist From The Srn Plains/Sern Us Nwwd Across The South-Central Rockies And Interior West...While An Anomalously Amplified And Unseasonally Unsettling Trough Evolves Along The West Coast.

Wpc Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have Been Manually Derived Starting With A Composite Of Compatible Guidance From The 06 Utc Gfs/Gefs Mean And 00 Utc Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. These Offer Good Solution Clustering And Continuity With Forecast Spread Suggesting Slightly Better Than Average Predictability.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Large Scale Pattern Will Favor Below Normal Daytime Temps From The Nrn-Central Plains Eastward To The Atlantic And Also Centered Across California. Multiple Days Of Highs 10-20f Below Normal Are Possible Over The Nrn-Central Plains.

The Sern Us Should Be Close To Normal While Persistently Above Normal Readings Are Expected To Be Confined To The Srn Plains And Interior Northwest.

A Cold Front Progressing From The Nrn And Central Plains Toward The East Coast Along With Lingering Lead Boundaries Will Focus Qpf Locally With Benefit From Pooling Moisture And Dynamic Support. Behind The Front Low Level Upslope Flow Could Enhance Nrn-Central High Plains Convection That Would Spread Esewd.

Meanwhile Expect Diurnal Convection Over The Southeast And Srn Rocky States.

An Isolded Shower/Tstm Is Also Not Out Of The Question In The
Vicinity Of The West Coast Trough Aloft.


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