US Final Extended Forecast Updated thru Jun 15

...Pattern Overview ...

The Medium Range Mid-Upper Level Flow Pattern Is Highlighted By
Troughs Dominating The Wrn And Ern Us With Ridging Over The Center Of The Country.
The Days 3-7 Forecast Was Primarily Derived From A Blend Of The 00 Utc Gefs Mean And 00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean...With Good Overall Pattern Agreement Shown By The 00z Canadian Ensemble
Mean And 00z Naefs Ensemble Mean.

The 00z Ecmwf Varied Considerably From Its 12z Fri Run With The
Phasing Of The Western And Eastern Troughs...Especially On Thu
Night Through Fri 14 Jun And Continuing Into Sat 15 Jun. The Same
Can Be Said In Regard To The 00-06z Gfs. The 00z Gfs Looks To Be
A Low Probability Solution In Phasing A Mesoscale Convectively
Driven Low Development Over The Plains With The Northern Stream
Shortwave And Developing A Deep Low Coming Into Mi 12z Thu
And Ny State 00z Fri.

The Run To Run Changes In Both The Gfs And Ecmwf Suggest Low
Confidence In Choosing Any One Run...Providing Further Support To
An Ensemble Mean Approach.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Ecmwf And Gefs Ensemble 700 Mb Standardized Temperature Anomalies Run 2-2.5 Above Normal From Nm To The Southern/ Central Plains Tue-Fri With The Area Shifting A Bit East Out Of Nm..But Continuing Over The Southern Plains And Into The Mid Ms Valley Sat 15 Jun.

This Spells A Summer Heat Wave From The Southwest And Across The Southern Plains And Central Plains...With Surface Temperatures Several Degrees Above Normal Through The Mid-Late Week Days And Likely All Of Next Weekend As Well.

Further North...Lee Troughs Over The Northern To Central High
Plains And Upper Divergence Maxima Emerging From The Central
Rockies Onto The Plains Favors A Diurnal Convective Pattern With Mesoscale Convective Systems Likely To Develop And Roll Across The North Central Plains And Mid-Upper Ms Valley..Possibly Turning Southeast Into The Lower Oh Valley And Central-Southern Appalachians On The Back Side Of The Upper High As The Layer
850-500 Mb Flow Becomes Northwest.

The Low Level Cyclone Tracking Across The Northeast Tue-Wed Will
Focus Nern Us Rainfall..Winding Down As The Cyclone Departs Thu.


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