US Extended Weather thru Dec 23

A Stormy Winter Pattern For Midwest...Great Lakes And Northeast...

The 15-12z And 16-00z Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means Remain In Very
Good Longwave Medium Range Agreement Through Day 5-6 Across The Conus.

An Energetic Pacific System Ejects East-Northeastward Through The Central Plains...And Deepens As It Migrates Northeastward Through The Midwest...Great Lakes And The Northeast.

This System (What Amounts To A Broad Occlusion On The Surface
Graphics By Day 6) Opens The Door For An Appreciably Cold And
Blustery Northwest Flow Pattern And High Surface Pressure To Surge
Through The Southeast And Through The Entire Gulf Coast And

This System Settles In Central Quebec By Day 6...With Several Embedded Mid-Level Waves (Possibly An Alberta Clipper-Type
System) To Reinforce And Continue To Gradually Carve Out The Upper Trough Across The Great Lakes And Northeast. This Pattern Will Yield A Generally Colder Airmass In Place East Of 95w...Including
The Northern Half Of The Ms Valley...The Great Lakes... Northeast... The Ohio Valley...And Parts Of The Northern Mid Atlantic States.

The Day 6-7 Flow Pattern Continues With A Trough In The Northeast
Quarter Of The Nation And A Stagnant...Slow-Moving Trough Along
The West Coast. A Ridge Dominates The Central Portion Of The
Continent. The Ecmwf/Gefs Means And Their Deterministic Runs Are
Perhaps A Bit Quick In Allowing The Bulk Of This Pacific Trough To
Migrate Inland Given The Cutoff Nature Of The Surface Wave And The
Blocky Pattern Developing In The Canadian Maritimes.

Both Means Essentially Keep The Cyclonic Flow Mainly Over Open
Water And Maintain A Split-Flow Pattern Aloft Along The West Coast. This Would Generally Keep The Surface Wave Migrating Southward Along The California Coast Then Attempting To Come Ashore Beneath The Southern Stream In A Split-Flow Scenario.

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