US Extended Forecast thru Sep 9

The Trends In The Last Four Synoptic Data Cycles Of Both The Gefs
And Ecens Means Have Been Convergent With Regard To The Primary Waves Affecting Central North America At The Medium Range--Good News For Confidence In The Current Forecast.

Used A Blend Of The 00z/02 Ecens Mean And Deterministic Ecmwf For The Fronts And Pressures, With Decreasing Emphasis On The Deterministic Run With Time. The Gfs Has Not Been As Stable Run-To-Run, So Did Not Use It In The Manual Blend.

Below Normal Temperatures Are Expected From The Great Lakes Across The Northeast Where At Least Two Major Cold Frontal Passages Are Expected. Most Of The Rainfall In That Part Of The Country Will Be Attendant With These Fronts.

The Northwest Will Also Be Clipped By The Polar Front, With Enhanced Rainfall Shifting From The Pacific Coast To The Northern High Plains During The Period.

Easterlies Across Florida And The Gulf States Will Keep That Region Showery--Particularly The Florida Peninsula And South Texas.

The Monsoon Will Be On The Wane Over The Southwest.

Texas Looks To Be The Hot Spot, With Many Locations Soaring Through The 90s Each Day, Perhaps Reaching The Century Mark.


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