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US Extended Forecast thru Sep 8

...Pattern Overview/Model Preferences...

The Latest Models/Ensembles Show A Slow Moving Upper Cyclone
Centered Near 44n 135w This Morning To Move Into The Pacific
Northwest And Inland By Day 7 Sun 08 Sep. A Strong Upper High
Persists Centered Over Co 12z Wed Through The Weekend. The
Associated Ridge Expands Into The Southwest Us With Time. A Broad Trough Persists Across The Eastern Us With Deamplification
Expected Once The Western Closed Low Moves Inland Forces The
Central Us Ridge East.

With The Upper Cyclone Nearing The Pacific Northwest...The 00z
Runs Trended Slightly Slower But With Normal Run To Run Variability. The 00 Gfs Came In With A More Southern Track And
Due To The Blocking Provided By The Central Rockies Anticyclone... The More Northern 00z Ecmwf/06z Gefs Mean/00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Closed 500 Mb Low Tracks Are Preferred. The 00z Gefs Members Had Wide Enough Spread To Lose The Definition Of The
Closed Low Days 6-7 Sat/Sun...But The 06z Holds Onto It Longer... Which Closely Matches The 00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean.

The Other Region Of Model Disagreement To Resolve Is Across
Eastern Canada/Northeast Us...With The Fast Flow And Model Run To
Run Differences On Picking Which Wave To Amplify Within The
Confluent Flow. By 00z Fri The 00z Ecmwf Is On The More Amplified
Of Model/Ensemble Suite Of Forecasts...With Just A Couple Of
Members More Amplified In The Northeast. Since This Is A Change
From The Prior Ecmwf Runs...Low Confidence Is Assigned To The
Operational 00z Ecmwf Here...With Only 10 Percent Of The Overall
Weighting.

The Preference For Days 3-7 Was To Blend 50 Percent Of The 00z
Ecmwf Ensemble Mean With 40 Percent Of The 06z Gefs Mean And 10 Percent Of The Operational 00z Ecmwf. This Presents Good
Continuity From The Overnight Forecasts.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Along With A Cold Frontal Passage...Widespread Showers Are
Expected As The Cyclone Moves Through The Pacific Northwest Next
Weekend...Particularly For The Northern Cascades.

Beneath The Upper High Over The Central Rockies/Plains...Hot Temperatures Will Continue...Particularly From Kansas/Missouri Southward Into Texas And Louisiana...Where Nearly 2 Weeks Have Passed With Almost No Rain And Full Sun.

Forecast Highs For Days 3-7 May Reach Or Exceed 100 Over Oklahoma/Texas Each Afternoon...With Above Normal Readings Also Extending North Across The Northern Plains And Into The Great Basin As Well.


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