US Extended Forecast thru Sep 28

...Overview And Preferences...

A Very Amplified North Pacific Ocean Basin Will Help Drive The
Downstream Flow Over The Conus In The Medium Range.

Despite The Anomalous Meridional Flow... The Pattern Is Expected To Remain Progressive Unlike Many Instances Over The Past Few Months. The 12z/20 Deterministic And Ensemble Guidance Suite Maintained Broad Continuity... Signaling A Deep Trough Pushing Through The Interior West Midweek... A Departing Closed Low Over Atlantic Canada... And Ridging Along About 90w.

The Ecmwf Ensembles Had Shown Less Run-To-Run Changes Than The Gefs Ensembles... And This Was Strikingly Clear With The 18z Run Showing A Large Departure From The Ongoing Ensemble Cluster In The Northeast Early In The Forecast Period. Opted To Base The Forecast On The 12z/20 Ecens Mean... Which Allows For Weak Energy To Drift Through The Mid-Atlantic Wed-Thu And Also Suggests A Slower Exit Of Western Troughing Into The Plains By Next Weekend. Given The Typical Fast Bias Of The Gfs/Gefs In An Amplified Pattern... Felt The Slightly Slower Ecens Mean Was Most Reasonable.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Frontal Boundary Stalled Near Florida Through Much Of The Forecast
Period Should Provide A Focus For Modest If Not Heavy Rains...
With Forecast Pw Std Deviations As High As +2 To +3.

Deep Trough In The West Will Bring In A Large Area Of Cool/Wet Weather...Likely Turning To Snow In The Higher Elevations Post-Fropa.

Ahead Of The Front... Temperatures Should Warm Nicely Towards 80f As Far North As Msp Thu/D6... Anomalies Near +10 To +15f. Nw Flow Aloft Over The East Coast Should Yield Another Dry/Quiet Few Days.


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