US Extended Forecast thru Sep 21

...Pattern Overview...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...And Sensible Weather Highlights...

Tropical Storm Ingrid Now Over The Bay Of Campeche Is Forecast By
The National Hurricane Center To Gain Hurricane Intensity Before
Moving Inland Into Nern Mexico Sun/Mon. The Circulation
Associated With Ingrid Is Expected To Rapidly Weaken Once Inland
Early To Mid Next Week...But Deep Tropical Moisture Flow Pooling
Ahead/Around The System Will Likely Fuel Lingering Medium Range
Locally Excessive Rains Up Into The Lower Rio Grande Valley/Srn Tx.

Farther North...Guidance Continues To Offer A Reasonably
Compatible Medium Range Larger Scale Pattern Evolution Aloft
Across The Mid-Latitudes As Highlighted By Several Dynamic
Mid-Latitude Systems. However...Deterministic Models Have
Recently Offered Less Than Stellar Run To Run Continuity With
Smaller Scale Embedded Systems So Depiction Of These More Varied Features Remains Suspect. Accordingly...Prefer An Ensemble Mean Based Solution To Demphasize/Smooth Out These Less Predictable Features.

Therefore...Wpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Were Primarily Derived From A 50-50 Blend Of The 18 Utc Gfs Ensemble Mean And Compatable/Consistent 12 Utc Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. Forecaster Modifications Were Applied To Show Better Defined Surface Lows Consistent With Dynamic Support Aloft. This Forecast Package Maintains Good Wpc Continuity.

A Lead Mid-Upper Level Trough Tracks Out From The Nern Us By Tue
And Exits Into The Canadian Maritimes Midweek. This Will Force A
Qpf Focusing Front Across The East-Central And Ern Us And
Evenually Well Down Into The Srn/Sern Us Followed In Its Wake By
Cooling High Pressure.

Upstream...System Should Gradually Weaken And Lose Diurnal Qpf/ Convective Influence Over The North-Central Us Early-Mid Next Week.

More Upstream...A Mid-Upper Level Trough Poised Off The Pac Nw Is Expected To Work Inland Across Much Of The Wrn Us Tue/Wed Along With The Spread Of Cooler Air And Some Precipitation Potential... Especially Over Nwrn Us Terrain...Before Focusing Activity With A Developing Frontal System Over The North-Central Us/Midwest.

Even More Upstream...Yet Another Amplified Mid-Upper Level Trough Then Develops Off The West Coast Late Next Week Whose Associated And Organized Lead Pcpn Would Effect The Pacific Nw And Nrn Ca Heading Into Next Weeeknd.


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