US Extended Forecast thru Sep 20

The Solution Spread Among The Global Numerical Models Increases
Greatly During The Second Half Of The Forecast Period, With Wild
Run-To-Run Fluctuations In The Deterministic Gfs And Ecmwf Over
The Past Several Cycles.

More Disconcerting Is The Outlying Status Of The Deterministic Models To The Attendant Ensemble Means, Particularly With Regard To The System Crossing Eastern Canada Days 6 And 7. Relied On The More Robust Means For This Package, Which Show A Comforting Correlation In The Sea Of Mass Field Chaos. Both The Gefs And Ecens Means Have Only Trended Modestly The Last Couple Days, Affording A Smoother Transition With More Continuity.

The Heavy Rains North Of Tropical Depression Ten (Ingrid) Should Continue To Impact South Texas Day 4, Then Wind Down Considerable Once The Whole Wave Is Well Inland Over Mexico.

Elsewhere, The Pacific Northwest Should Wax Unsettled As An Upper Trough Slowly Advances Inland. The Uncertain Fate Of The System Over Eastern Canada Makes The Sensible Weather Threats Along The United States Border Regions From The Northern Plains To New England Commensurately Uncertain, With The Fundamental Issue Of Whether There Will Be Warm Or Cold Advection One Of The Bigger Ifs.


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