US Extended Forecast thru Sep 15

...Overview And Guidance Preferences...

Strong Ridging Over The Central North Atlantic... Just Nw Of The
Azores... Along With Ridging Over Sw Canada Combine To Favor Deep But Progressive Troughing Along The Eastern Seaboard By The End Of The Week.

In Addition... Splitting Energy Just South Of Alaska Should Favor A Slowly Moving Closed Low Off The West Coast.

Confidence Would Generally Be Lower Than Average Given That The
Models Have Only Recently Converged Toward This More Amplified
Solution. But... The Ensemble Means Are Likely Trying To Play
Catch-Up Due To The Member Timing Differences... Though Many
Members Have Shown A Solution Near The Latest 00z Deterministic
Cluster For Several Cycles... So Forecaster Confidence Is Near
Average. The 00z Gfs/Gefs Mean Lied On The Quicker Side Of The
Guidance Spread And Was Not Preferred In An Inherently Slower
Pattern In The West. The 06z Gfs Was Slower Than Earlier Runs And
A Bit Quicker Than The 00z Ecmwf. Along With The Slower/Middle
Ground 00z Ecens Mean... These Three Formed The Preferred Cluster Of Solutions For The Base Of The Forecast.

This Acted To Temper The Shift In Continuity Without Trending Too Abruptly Toward A Much Slower/Deeper Solution.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Mid-Level Energy Lifting Through The Interior West/Rockies Should
Enhance Convection Over The Region Through The End Of The Week...Only Slowly Diminishing As The Feature Drifts Eastward Toward The Northern Plains.

Temperatures Should Average Above Normal In The Interior Pac Nw And Northern Rockies. The Upper Low Off The West Coast Should Hold Precipitation Offshore Through Much Of The Period... Perhaps Until Next Weekend Especially Over Coastal Oregon Into Washington.

Farther East... The Digging Trough Will Allow Temperatures To Rise Smartly Out Ahead Of It Wed-Thu/D3-4 Before The Cold Front Brings In Much Cooler Air... Preceded By Showers/Storms.

Progressive Nature Of The Trough Should Limit Heavy Precipitation. Frontal Boundary /Albeit Weaker/ Could Push All The Way To The Gulf Coast By Sun/D7... In A Very Fall-Like Manner. Easterly Flow Through Florida Toward The Western Gulf Combined With Above Normal Pw Values Should Keep Se Tx Fairly Wet Late This Week.


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