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US Extended Forecast thru Oct 5

The 12z/27 Global Numerical Guidance Was Marked By The Worrisome Split Between The Deterministic Solutions And The Ensemble Means.

In This Case, The Ecmwf And Gem Global Showed Cold Air Invading
The Eastern United States Late In The Period, While The Ecens And
Cmce Means Held The Longwave Trough Back Over The Ohio
Valley--Close To The 12z/27 Gfs And Continuity.

Elected To Go With The Means And Honor Continuity, With The Caveat That The Spread Belies Uncertain Forcing At That Time Range. Indeed, The 00z/28 Gfs Sends A Closed Mid-Level Low Toward The Tennessee Valley Just Beyond This Forecast.

Such A Split May Be One Of The Ways That The Deterministic Models And Their Attendant Means Can Be So Out Of Phase.

The Mean Charts Implicate Another Round Of Cold For The Northern
Rockies, With More Snow For The Mountains.

The Height Falls Associated With This Wave Of Energy Should Gradually Forge A Surface Cyclone Over The North Central States During The Second Half Of The Period, With Overrunning Rains Spreading All The Way To The Interior Northeast By Day 7.

Much-Below Normal Temperatures Are Expected Over The Northern Rockies And Intermountain Region As The Trough Passes, With Much-Above Normal Readings Over The Northern Mid Atlantic And Interior Northeast Until Day 7.


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