US Extended Forecast thru Oct 27

The Global Numerical Models Are In Reasonable Agreement On The New Flow Regime Across North America At The Medium Range, With The Details Of The 00z/20 Ecmwf (Days 3 And 4) And Ecens Mean (Days 5-7) Preferred Over The Gfs/Gefs Mean Due To Better Correlation With The 00z/20 Ukmet And Cmce Mean With Key Shortwaves.

All In All, The Pattern Is A Dry One For The Nation, With A Protective
Ridge Over The West And A Broad, Amplified Trough Over The East.

Continental Polar And Modified Arctic Air Are Expected To Wash Thru Much Of The Great Plains, Midwest, And East Coast States In Waves, With Below Normal Temperatures And Light Precipitation With The Passing Clipper Systems.

The Great Lakes Should Light Up With Lake-Effect And Lake-Enhanced Showers--In The Form Of Snow Away From The Leeward Shorelines.

Upslope Areas In The Central Appalachians Should Also See The First Snowflakes Of The Season.

The Jury Is Still Out On How Much Moisture The Second Round Of
Clipper Energy Is Able To Wring Out Across The Midwest, Great
Lakes, And Central And Northern Appalachians Late In The Period.

The Wettest Area Should Be The South Central States, Where Return
Flow From The Gulf Is Expected To Fuel Rainfall Over The Southern
Rockies During The First Half Of The Period, And The Southern
Plains And Lower Mississippi Valley During The Second Half Of The
Forecast.

The Southern Tip Of Florida Should Stay Wet Throughout The Medium Range, Where Subtropical Moisture Overruns The Polar Front To The South Of The State.


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