US Extended Forecast thru Oct 26

...Overview And Preferences...

Amplified Pattern From The Pacific Across North America Should Hold Relatively In Place... With Ridging Over Western Canada And
Troughing Through The Central/Eastern Conus. A Cutoff Low Between Hawaii And Alaska Has More Support To Undercut The Ridge In The Nw And May Push Into Ca Late Next Week.

The Model/Ensembles Have Shown Good Synoptic Agreement But Remain In A State Of Flux With The Details. The 12z/18z Gfs Runs Fall Outside The Better Clustering Of The 12z Ecmwf With The Gefs/Ecens Means... And Even The 12z Ukmet/Canadian Are Not Too Far Off.

In The West... The Gfs Keeps The Upper Low Well Offshore Ca Later In The Week And In The East It Lies Well East Of The Ensemble Clustering Just Off New England Thu/D5.

The 12z Ecmwf May Be Too Deep With The Western Upper Low And Too Close To The Coast In The Northeast... But Otherwise Seems Reasonable. However... Given The Changes Seen From Run To Run... Relied More On The Ecens Mean And Somewhat On The Gefs Mean Especially By Days 6-7.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

In The East... The Broad Trough Should Keep Temperatures Below
Normal All The Way To The Gulf Coast With The Polar Front Likely
Clearing Most If Not All Of Florida... Though Moisture May Remain
Elevated Over The Southern Peninsula As The Boundary Stalls In The
Straits.

Details For The Northeast And Especially Eastern New England Are Still Fuzzy... But Will Keep The Threat Of At Least Some Precip For The Region.

Near The Lakes... -6c To -9c Air At 850mb Atop Lake Temps 9-18c Spells At Least A Modest Lake Precip Event... With Some Accumulating Snow Possible In Higher Elevations.

In The West... Approaching Upper Low Should Spread Some Precip Along The Northern Ca Coast From Sfo Northward With Much Lesser Amounts South And East Of There... Depending On The Strength Of The Upper Low.


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