US Extended Forecast thru Oct 18

Pattern Overview...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...Sensible
Weather Highlights...

Energy/Height Falls Associated With Significant Short Range Closed
Mid-Upper Level Troughing Over The Wrn Us Eject More Ernestly
Across The N-Central Us Early Next Week. This Will Favor Lead
Surface Low Development From The Plains To The Great Lakes
Mon-Wed/Thu...With Associated Heavier Qpf Potential Down Through
The S-Central Us And Then Shifting Ewd Late Week Into The Ern Us
Near A Trailing Cold Front...Working Gradually Into Earlier Week
Ambient Damming High Pressure On The Back Side Of A Pesky Wrn
Atlantic Mid-Upper Level Trough/Maritime Low Position.

The Manually Adjusted Wpc Progs Maintain Good Plains To Great
Lakes Low Depth/Organization Consistent With Dynamic Support.
Cooling Temps In This Pattern In The Wake Of This System Supports
Snow From The N-Central Rockies Into The Nrn Plains Out From Short Range Time Scales Extending From Wpc Winter Weather Desk Product Guidance.

Left Behind Upstream Seems A Favorable Conduit For Additional
Mid-Late Week Flow And Additional Cooling And Height Falls Back
Into The W-Central Us To The Lee Of A Building Canadian West Coast Centered Mid-Upper Level Ridge. Specifics At These Later Time Frames Though Seem To Lose Predictability Quickly Considering Increased Deterministic Model Forecast Spread And Lingering Continuity Issues.

Accordingly...Wpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have Been Primarily Derived From A Simple 50-50 Blend Of The 00 Utc Gfs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means. While Deterministic Model Runs Have Tended To Converge Upon A More Similar Pattern Evolution Over The Past 24 Hours...Bolstering Confidence Overall... The Ensemble Means Offer A Reasonable Scenario With Better Run To Run Continuity.


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