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US Extended Forecast thru Oct 13

Overview And Model Preferences...

Upper Pattern Late Week Into Next Weekend Should Feature A Deep But Progressive Trough In The West And Ridging Over Se Canada... With Rather Stationary Troughing Off The Se/Mid-Atlantic Coast.

The Ensembles Have Generally Trended A Bit Quicker /Maybe 6-12 Hrs/ To Lift The Trough Out Of The Central Rockies And Onto The Northern Plains By Fri-Sat/D5-6 But Otherwise Have Maintained Good
Continuity. The Gfs Was Quicker Than The Ensemble Consensus In Its Recent 00z-06z Runs... And Was Discounted. Incoming Energy From The Pacific Suddenly Shows Good Deterministic/Ensemble Clustering Sat/D6 Though Given The Upstream Inconsistencies /Somewhat Tied In Part To The Farther Upstream Extratropical Transition Of Typhoon Danas/... Confidence Is Low.

A Deeper Solution Opens The Door For Another Digging Trough Into The West By Sun/D7 But The Ecmwf/Canadian Lie On The Strongest Side Of The Spread..... So Preferred To Stay Nearer To The 00z Ecens/06z Gefs Consensus.

In The East... The Lingering Troughing Should Maintain A Stationary
Sfc Boundary Off The East Coast... With Possible Low Pressure
Development Throwing Back Precip At Least To The Coast. A Variety
Of Solutions Exist Bringing From Zero To Several Inches Of Rain To
Coastal Areas... But For Now Will Maintain A Preference For An
Offshore Solution Until There Exists A Clearer Trend.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Western Trough Should Induce Cyclogenesis First In Nv/Ut Then
Onto The Plains... With Windy/Wet And Then Snowy Conditions For
Especially Elevated Areas Of The Great Basin Eastward Into Co/Wy
With H7 Temps Near -3c.

Temperatures Wed-Fri/D3-5 Should Be 10-20f Below Normal West Of The Divide... And About 10-20f Degrees Above Normal Ahead Of The Front.

As System Progresses Through The High Plains... Do Not Expect Quite The Repeat Of The System This Past Fri-Sat... With Less Available Moisture And Milder Temperatures Expected.

The East Coast Should Average Near To Below Normal... Contingent Upon How Close The Offshore System Gets. Wedge-Like Pattern Suggests At Least More Clouds Than Sun With An Ever Decreasing Sun Angle.


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