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US Extended Forecast thru Nov 3

The Medium Range Forecast...Which Includes A Large-Scale Flow
Pattern Change...Looks To Be In Full Swing Through This Day 3-7
Period.

The 27/00z Ecens/Naefs And Deterministic Ecmwf And Canadian Runs Were In Very Good Agreement...Even With Smaller Scale Details Over The Great Lakes--Out Through Day 6. Wpc Manual Surface Graphics Continue With The Midwest/Great Lakes Open Wave Cyclone Solution That Quickly Wraps And Intensifies Downstream Over South Central Ontario.

The 27/00z Deterministic Gfs Continues To Produce A Deep Occluded
Cyclone Over The Mid Missouri Valley And Remains A Faster Solution
Than Its Mean Through The Upper Great Lakes.

In Simple Terms...It All Boils Down To The Jet Streak Ejecting Out Of The South Central Rockies Around 31/00z (Day 3.5) And The Gfs Allowing Nearly All The Energy/Vorticity Rolling Northeastward With That Feature. The Deterministic Ecmwf/Canadian Are In Good Agreement With The Jet Streak But Are About 12 Hours Slower Than The Gfs With The Bulk Of The Vorticity Ejecting Out Of The Tx/Ok Panhandles And Swrn Kansas.

As A Result...The Deterministic Gfs Is The Fastest Surface Solution Across The Lower Ms Valley And Downstream Along The Eastern Seaboard Day 6. To Maintain Continuity Over The Last 3-4 Days...We Discounted The Gfs Today.


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