This Medium Range Period Continues To Feature A Break Down Of The Amplified Flow Across The North American Continent. The Strong
Amplified Ridge Along The West Coast And Split-Flow Breakdown In
The Far East Central And Northeast Pacific Will Undergo A 36-48
Hour Transition Period...And From 2 Distinctly Different Source
The Southern Flanks Of The Ridge Will Be Eroded By An 'Inside
Slider' System Featuring A Compact And Vigorous H7-H3 Layer
Circulation Migrating Through The Great Basin...And The Northern
Flanks Of The Upper Ridge Axis...Aligned Along The West Coast Of
Canada Will Be Eroded By A Series Of 'Typhoon-Infused' Waves... Crashing Into The Alaska Panhandle.
The Effects Of These Perturbations Work Their Way Downstream Into
The Eastern Half Of The Conus...With The "Inside Slider' Ejecting
Across The Central Plains And Exiting The Conus Invof The Great
Lakes In The Day 5-6 Time Frame. This System Erodes A Rather
Stable Surface Ridge That Has Held Firm Across The Eastern
...Model Preferences And Sensible Weather Highlights...
The Overall Synoptic-Scale Features Driving The Pattern Change Are
In Rather Decent Agreement...With A Preferred Blend Of The 18z
Gefs Ensemble Mean And Naefs/Ecens Ensemble Means Again Leading The Way. The Transition Period Seems To Be Where The Deterministic Runs And Individual Ensemble Members (Or Clusters Of Members) Are Showing The Greatest Variance And Injecting 'Uncertainty' Into The Forecast.
Recent Gfs Runs Have Been Generally Displaying Their 'Fast Bias'
And Wpc Continues To Rule These Solutions Out...Opting For A
Slower Transition Of The Pattern. The 12z Canadian Is An Even
Faster Outlier...But The 12 Utc Ecmwf Is Now Closer To The
Preferred Blend Of The Ensemble Means With Overall Flow
The Highly Unsettling And Cooling Wrn Us System Will Support
Widespread Early-Midweek Winter Pcpn Potenital Across Much Of The
Interior Wrn Us And Out Across The Rocky States And Locally
Significantly Enhanced By Upslope Flow.
Later Week Downstream...Wavy Central To Ern Us Frontal System Translation Next Week Will Focus Wave/Lead Qpf And Post-Frontal Cooling High Pressure...Including Some Threat For Wrap-Back Winter Pcpn Over The N-Central Us.
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