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US Extended Forecast thru Nov 16

Short Range Forecast Discussion
Valid 00Z Sun Nov 10 2013 - 00Z Tue Nov 12 2013

...Cold and blustery conditions expected behind a strong cold front
plunging through the north central U.S....

Rather tranquil weather will continue over the lower 48 through the
weekend and into early next week.

A surface low and cold front will trigger light rain and snow showers as it races through the Great Lakes Saturday night and lifts through the Northeast on Sunday. Some higher precipitation totals will be possible downwind of the Great Lakes...but overall...a lack of moisture across the region should keep amounts at a minimum.

Behind this system...a second...stronger...cold front plunging south out of Canada on Sunday will bring cold and blustery conditions into
the north central U.S. for the start of the work week. Again...a lack of
moisture will keep precipitation to a minimum...however...strong winds behind the front should streak light upslope snows across Montana Sunday into Monday.

Across the southern tier...light showers will be possible beneath a weak piece of energy aloft crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Meanwhile...low-level easterly flow will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern Florida.

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Extended Forecast Discussion
Valid 12z Tue Nov 12 2013 - 12z Sat Nov 16 2013

...Overview...

Forecast Next Week Appears To Be In Good Synoptic Agreement
Despite The Pattern Shift Over The Pacific Into North America.

The Strong Ridging Over The Aleutians Is Expected To Break Down Next Late In The Period Which Flips The Ridge/Trough Pattern Across The Conus. Smaller Disturbances Will Drop Southeastward Out Of Nw Canada Toward The Northern States But Predictability Of These Is Limited.

...Model Preferences...

Used A General 06z Gfs/Gefs And 00z Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Blend For The First Half Of The Period... With The Biggest Difference Remaining
Over The Southeast As The Tail End Of The Sharp Trough Lifts Out
By Thu/D5. The Ecmwf Remains On The Slower/Deeper Side Of The
Multi-Ensemble Spread But Still Has More Than A Few Members That
Are Even Slower.

Trend Has Been For A More Progressive System With Development Offshore And Moving Eastward Along The Lines Of The 06z Gefs Mean And 00z Ecens Mean.

By Fri-Sat/D6-7... Ensembles Still Show Lowering Heights Centered Along And Just To The East Of The Rockies With Building Heights Along The East Coast. Quicker Moving Northern Stream Systems Will Be The Rule With This Pattern But The Deterministic Models Are Woefully Inconsistent With Timing/Depth. Deferred To An Ensemble Blend Amid Increasing Spread Over The Upstream Source Region /Gulf Of Alaska/.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Cold/Arctic Front Will Bring In The Coldest Airmass Of The Season
To The Eastern Third Of The Conus... With Near To Below Freezing
Temperatures Into The Deep South But Probably Not To The Gulf
Coast.

Min/Max Temps Should Be About 10-20f Below Normal But At Least Relatively Short-Lived.

Early Period Warmer Than Avg Temps In The West Will Drop Off As Heights Lower By Mid-Week... And Precip Chances Will Increase In Tandem Though Overall Amounts Should Be On The Light Side Given The Drier Nw Flow Aloft.


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