US Extended Forecast thru May 30

...Flow Pattern/Sensible Weather Highlights And Guidance / Uncertainty Assessment...

Expected Srn Stream Slow Closed Low Translation/Modification From
The Srn Rockies Across The S-Central Us Then Possibly Mid-Lower Ms Valley/Broad Vicinity Next Week Should Locally Focus Heavy
Rainfall.

Meanwhile...Cooling And Unsettling Nern Us And West Coast Mid-Upper Level Trough Amplifications Should Sandwich A Warming Central Us Mean Ridge That Builds Around The Srn Stream Closed Low.

Impulses Riding Through The Wrn Us Trough Eject Over The Building Downstream Ridge To Support An Additional Local Convection/Mcs Threat Potential Across Then Sewd From The N-Central Us Within A Wavy Frontal Zone With Emerging Boundary Flow Intercept.

12 Utc Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Means Offer A Pretty Amplified And
Consistent Larger Scale Flow Scenario Over Noam/Vicinity...But
18/00 Utc Gfs/Gefs Have Trended More Amplified Than 12 Utc
Guidance.

While Not Convinced On Latest Gfs/Gefs Ensemble Details...The Overall Amplification Trend Seems Consistent With Recent Flow History Highlighted By Closed Systems As Evident Per Recent Water Vapor Imagery Loops.

Accordingly...Wpc Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have
Been Primarily Derived From A 50-50 Blend Of Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble
Means.

Deterministic Model Smaller Scale Embedded Feature Differences Further Lend An Ensemble Mean Approach.

Even So...Forecast Predictability Can Be Considered Less Than To Near Average.


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