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US Extended Forecast thru May 3

...Very Wet, Slow-Moving Storm East Of The Rockies...

The Global Numerical Models Have Been Advertising Another Round Of Blocking At The Medium Range For Some Time Now, And Are Finally Converging On Where The Ridges And Troughs Will Shake Out. Began With The Details Of The 12z/25 Ecmwf For Days 3 And 4, Then Transitioned To The 12z/25 Ecens Mean--With A Modest Incorporation Of The 12z/25 Naefs Mean To Mitigate Model Biases-- For The Second Half Of The Forecast When Synoptic Particulars Off The West Coast Become Divergent.

These Choices Seem To Honor The Whole Drift Of The Global Guidance Best, And In The Case Of The Operational Ecmwf, Add The Resolution Needed To Highlight The Sensible Weather Threats.

With A Ridge Firmly Anchored Along The West Coast, The Nation West Of The Continental Divide Should Be Dry And Mild.

East Of The Rockies, The Sprawling Vortex That Coalesces Late In The Short Range May Take Many Days To Shear Apart.

The Depth Of The Cyclone And Its Temporal Persistence Suggest That Whatever Weather Occurs Over Any Given Locale--Be It Rain, Snow, Thunderstorms, Or Gradient Wind--Should Be Served In Spades.

The Black Hills Of South Dakota Appear Primed For A Lot Of Snow.

The Central Gulf States Will Likely See Both Severe Thunderstorms And Several Inches Of Flooding Rains.

The Upslope Areas East Of The Appalachians Should Get Soaked As Well. The Upper Midwest Looks Cold And Wet, With Some Snow Under The Heart Of The Vortex.

The Deep-Layer Moisture Should Get Replaced By Continental Polar
Air Days 6 And 7 Over Much Of The Central And Eastern United
States, But Instability Showers Should Keep Things Damp.


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