US Extended Forecast thru Mar 31

Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

Wpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have Been Primarily Derived From A Blend Of The Compatable 00 Utc
Ecmwf/Ukmet And Ecmwf Ensemble Mean For Days 3-5
Thu-Sat...Following From Short Range Wpc Overnight Preferences
That Remain Reasonable With At Least Average Predictability.

This Well Clustered Guidance Set Offers A Less Progressive Solution
Across The Pacific And Noam Than The Much Faster Gfs And An
Associated Subset Of Gefs Members That Are Likely Showing A Known Bias.

While Systems Should Continue To Progress Under More Blocky
Flow Across Alaska And Canada...Ample Energies Set To Emerge From Ern Asia And Latest Supportive Guidance Trends Allow For Decent Downstream Flow Amplification That Seems To Blend Best With A Solution Closest To The 00 Ecmwf Ensemble Mean From The Pacific To The Lower 48 Days 6/7 Sun/Next Mon.

This Solution Sits On The Slower Side Of The Full Envelope Of Guidance In A Period...Albeit With Near Or Just Below Average Predictability After Consideration Of Recent Run To Run Model Variances.

Pattern Overview And Sensible Weather Highlights...

Potent Enewd Mid-Upper Level Trough Approach To The S-Central
Plains Thu Should Spawn Lead Wavy Frontogenesis Across The Central Plains Whose Subsequent Development And Progression To Off The East Coast By Sat And Support A Wide Swath Of Moderate Pcpn.

Ample Warm Sector Warming With Deepest Moisture Over The Sern Us Will Couple With Enough Cooling In The Wake Of System Passage To Support Spring Snows Over The Central Then Ern Us Nrn Tier States.

Upstream...Inland Systems Push Over The Nwrn States Should
Increase Over The Weekend Along With Moderate To Terrain Enhanced Heavy Rain/Snows.

Flow Amplification Should Then Allow More Organized/Renewed Ern Pacific Frontal System And Low Approach By Early Next Week.

This May Also Allow Lead Canadian Cooling To Dig Swd Down Through The N-Central Us Sun/Next Mon Including Some Potential For Deeper Cyclogenesis.

Wpc Progs Currently Depict Only Modest Low Development Compared To Some Of Deterministic Models Given Forecast Spread/Uncertainty.


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