US Extended Forecast thru Mar 22

...Active/Chaotic And Transitional Pattern...

...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessments...

Prefer A Similar Forecast Strategy As Yesterday And Have Leaned
Away From Chaotic Short And Medium Range Model Run To Run Trends.

It Still Seems Prudent That Given The Amplitude Of Energetic Pacific Systems In Water Vapor Loops And Guidance...Prefer A Mid-Upper Level Medium Range Pattern Evolution Downstream Over The Lower 48 That Highlights Systems On The Amplified And Somehwat Less Progressive Side Of The Full Composite Envelope Of Model And
Ensemble Solutions Into Mid-Late Next Week When Timing Differences Are Most Evident.

However...Remain Hesitant To Embrace The Most Amplified Outlier Solutions Considering Run-Run Fluctuations In Deterministic Models And Elevated Forecast Spread/Uncertainty With Embedded Sensible Weather Focusing Systems.

With These Pattern Preferences In Mind...Wpc Medium Range Surface
Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Along With Hpcguide Sensible
Weather Grids Were Primarily Derived From A Blend Of Reasonably
Compatable/Clustered Guidance From The 12 Utc Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean/Ukmet And 18 Utc Gfs Ensemble Mean Days 3/4 Tue/Wed Before Switching Increasingly Over Time From Days 5-7 Thu-Next Sat To The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean That Maintains Max Pattern And Wpc Continuity.

...Pattern Overview And Sensible Weather Highlights...

Mid-Upper Level Flow Offers Lead Remaining Nrn And Srn Stream
Troughing Moving Off The East Coast Tue.

Deepest Moisture/Pcpn Should Linger Over Fl Underneath Unseasonably Cooled High Pressure To The North In The Wake Of Short Range Wintery System Passage That Erodes By Midweek.

This Occurs As An Upstream And Vigorous Wrn Us Mid-Upper Level
Cooling Trough And Lead Frontal Push Digs Locally And Terrain
Enhanced Pcpn Through The N-Central Intermountain West/ Rockies/ Plains Into Tue...Continuing Onward Over The Central
Then Ern Us Wed-Fri Aided By Well Organized Late Winter
Cyclogenesis Allowing Snow Swath Potential On The Nrn Portion Of
The Low Track/Pcpn Swath And A Warming Pre-Frontal Airmass.

Further Upstream...Another Vigorous And Mid-Upper Level Trough And Surface System Punches Pcpn Through The Nwrn Us Again Into
Thu...With Subsequent Progression Out Through The West/Rockies In Flatter Flow By Next Weekend Across The Central And Ern Us.

Expect More Roller Coaster Weather Shifts With Lead Warming/ Modest Moisture Followed By The Dragging Of Some Colder Air Down In The Wake Of The Associated Wavy Frontal System.


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