US Extended Forecast thru Mar 2

Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
1041 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2014
Valid 12z Wed Feb 26 2014 - 12z Sun Mar 02 2014


Two Main Players Will Be In The Forecast Over The Conus Into The
Medium Range.

The First Will Be A Deep And Cold Upper-Level Trough That Should Remain Anchored Near Southern Hudson Bay... Funneling Cold Air Into The Central States.

The Second Player Will Be The Sfc Reflection Of A Slowly-Moving And Negatively-Tilted Trough In The Eastern Pacific.

This Will Send A Couple Significant Frontal Systems Into California And Then The Great Basin... Bringing In March Like A Lion.

The Two Airmasses And Their Thermal Contrasts Should Collide Along The Continental Divide With Snows Returning To The Northern Rockies And Big Day-To-Day Temperature Swings For Western Montana... Wyoming... Utah... And Colorado.

Model Preferences And Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Recent Guidance Are In Relatively Good Agreement Through
Fri/D5... And A Blend Among The 06z Gfs/Gefs Mean And 00z
Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Offered A Reasonable Starting Point Days 3-5.

Gfs Has Trended Back Toward The Farther West Ecmwf As Low Pressure Heads Off The Nc Coast Wed/D3 As The Arctic Surge Plunges Through The Plains.

Temperatures Will Drop Behind The Front To 20-30f Below Climo /Some Locations Near 40 Below Climo/.

In The West... The Ecmwf Has Offered More Consistency As The Front Barrels Through Ca/Az/Nv Into Tx By Fri/D5... And Its Precip Clusters More With The Ecens/Gefs Means Than Does The Gfs.

Regardless... Central/Northern Ca Should Wring Out At Least An Inch Or Two Overall... Less Precip In The Valleys And More /Snow/ In The
Mountains... With This Initial System. Modest Precip Will Spread
Through The Great Basin And Into The Rockies.

For Next Weekend... Sat-Sun/D6-7... Energy Will Continue To Push
Eastward Along The Gulf Coast And Likely Turn Northeastward.

Gefs Members Continue To Be Farther Offshore And Weaker Than The Ecmwf Ensemble Members... Which Have Shown Good Continuity Thus Far.

Gfs Has Trended From A Weak/Flat Wave 48 Hrs Ago To Something More Like The 00z Ecmwf In Its 06z Run.

Jury Is Still Out On How This System Evolves Next Weekend Given The Lead Time... But Potential For East Coast Impacts /Including More Snow/ Will Remain.

Bigger Story Will Be The Continued January-Like Temperatures In The
Central States As We Enter March... With Some Record Min And/Or
Low Max Temperatures Quite Possible.

Another System Should Push Through The West/Southwest Next Weekend Though The Models Vary On How To Handle The Specifics.

Have No Faith In These Smaller Features This Far Out And Since The Ensemble Means Fit Squarely In The Middle Of The Recent Deterministic Runs... Will Prefer That Solution Until A Clearer Consensus Emerges.

Precip Should Find Its Way To Areas That Have Yet To See Any This Year... Including Most Of Central/Southern Arizona And Southeastern California.

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