US Extended Forecast thru Mar 14

Overview And Model Preferences...

Upper Ridging Will Build Through The Pac Nw And British Columbia
Into The Northern Us Rockies Midweek While Deep But Progressive
Troughing Pushes Through The Central/Eastern States.

This Will Support A Deepening System Moving Roughly Along 40n From Ks To Ky To Cape Cod Tue-Thu/D3-5... Respectively.

The Ensembles Have Been Steadily Showing A System With A Slow Trend Toward A Deeper Solution While The Deterministic Models Have Narrowed Their Range Over The Past 48 Hrs.

However... The Ecmwf Still Lies On The Slower And More Developed Side Of The Ensemble Spread While The Gfs Lies On The Quicker And Less Developed Side.

Phasing Of Energy... Or Not... Between The Northern/Southern Stream Will Likely Remain Uncertain For A Couple More Days.

Ridging Over The West Will Try To Remain In Tact... Though Energy From The Eastern Pacific Will Attempt To Whittle Away At It But Should Be Largely Unsuccessful.

Again The 12z Ecmwf Appeared Too Aggressive With Shortwave Energy Moving Through The Pac Nw Fri/D6 Compared To The Gefs/ Ecens Ensembles.

A Nearly Even Blend Among The 18z Gfs/Gefs And 12z Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Offered A Reasonable Starting Point For The Forecast... Trending Toward An 80/20 Ensemble/Deterministic Weighting By Sat/D7. Ukmet/Canadian Have Yet To Join This Ongoing Good Cluster.

Sensible Weather Highlights....

Initial Mild Weather In The East Will Be Replaced By Colder Than
Average Temperatures Post-Fropa... All The Way Into Florida...
While The West Should Stay Near To Above Average.

Precipitation Will Be Widespread East Of The Divide/Tx Both Ahead Of The Cold Front Through The Southeast And Along/To The North Of The Sfc Low Track Through The Oh Valley Into The Northeast.

Cold Air Should Support Snow To The North Of The Low But The N-S Rain/Snow Line Is Yet To Be Determined.

Much Quieter Pattern For Later In The Week Into Sat/D7 With Merely A Clipper System Through The Lakes With Light Precip There And Increasing Chances Of Rain/Snow In The Pac Nw Ahead Of Another System.


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