US Extended Forecast thru Jun 3

Model Preferences/Uncertainty Assessment...

A Rather Blocky Pattern Should Continue Through Much Of The Medium Range Period With Another Wrn Us Closed Low Likely To Swing Through Ca Then Great Basin Over The Weekend.

Troughing Will Continue To Be Favored Just Offshore The East Coast Leaving Ridging In Between From The High Plains Into The Great Lakes.

The Closed Low Now Over Texas May Slowly Meander Into This Weekend Before Dissipating.

The Models/Ensembles Have Kinda Converged Toward A Common Solution And A Blend Among The 18z Gfs/Gefs And 12z Ecmwf/Ukmet And 12z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Seems To Offer A Reasonable Composite Starting Point Into Sun/Day5 In A Period With Good Wpc Continuity And Near Average Uncertainty.

Sun-Tue Does Continue To Offer Increased Forecast Spread With Main Weather Features With Less Certain Amplitude/Timing In Flow Transition.

The Deterministic Models Still Eject The Wrn Energy And Nw Atlantic Energy At Different Paces... With No Clear Ensemble Trend Yet.

That Said...Given Recent History And Blocky Nature Would Prefer A Solution For These Longer Time Frames On The More Amplified And Less Progressive Side Of The Full Envelope Of Solutions.

Sensible Weather Overview...

An Amplified Pattern Aloft Should Favor Summer Warmth/Humidity
Beneath A Central To E-Central Us Upper-Level Ridge With Cooler / Drier Nw Flow Over The Northeast And Mid-Atlantic Slow To Modify Into Early Next Week.

Upper Low In The West Will Bring Cooler/Windy Conditions As Well But Limited Precipitation West Of 115w...Though The Likely Steep Lapse Rates/Dynamics Should Induce Some Thunderstorms West Of The Better Moisture Plume From Az/Ut Into The Rockies.

Downstream... Impulses Riding Through The Unsettled Western Us
Trough Eject Atop The Building Central Us Ridge And Support A
Local Convection/Mcs Threat Out From The High Plains And To The
N-Central States Then Sewd Over The E-Central Us As Moisture
Intercepts A Wavy And Slow Moving Frontal Zone.

After The Weekend...More Substantial Trough Energy Aloft May Kick Out From The West To The N-Central Plains That If True Would Further Enhance The Convective Threat.

Over The S-Central States Prevailing Conditions Remain Dominated
By A Very Slow-Moving But Weakening Mid-Level Closed Low And
Chaotic But Locally Heavy Convective Pattern Into The Weekend.

The Trapped Circulation Should Yield Significant Rain Across Ern
Ok/Tx...The Southern Ozarks... And The Lower 1/3rd Of The Ms
Valley.


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