US Extended Forecast thru Jun 22

Overview And Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Potent Energy Contained Within An Amplified Wrn Conus Trough / Closed Low Wed Will Move Later Week Into An Evolving Large Scale Mean Ridge Between One Trough Settling Over The Ern Pac/West
Coast And Another Over Ern Canada/Nern Conus.

By Next Weekend This Energy Brings Some Degree Of Troughing Into The E-Central Conus As Heights Aloft Rise Over The W-Central US.

The Ultimate Evolution Of This Initial Wrn Energy Will Likely Provide
The Greatest Uncertainty Wed-Sun As Guidance Spread Illustrates
The Typical Difficulty In Resolving Details Of Energy Heading Into A Mean Ridge Position.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

Heaviest Rnfl During The Fcst Period Should Focus Near The Nrn
Plains/Upper Ms Valley And Great Lakes/Midwest In Association With
The Ejecting Wrn Conus Energy And Central Us Low Pressure/Lead
Moist Flow Convergence Whose Ewd Or Newd Progression May Be On The Slow Side.

Also Expect Convection To Extend Ewd/Sewd To The East Coast With Some Focus Along A Frontal Zone Dropping From The Northeast Into The Mid Atlantic And Extending Back To The Central Us System.

On A Somewhat Less Intense/Widespread/Frequent Basis Some Convection Is Possible Over Parts Of The Central-Srn Plains And Southeast.

The Most Pronounced Heat Over The Ern Half Of The Country Should Be Over The Carolinas/Srn Mid Atlantic With Multiple Days Of Highs At Least 5-10f Above Normal.

Very Warm To Hot Conds Will Also Extend Back To The Midwest For A Portion Of The Period But With Slightly Lesser Anomalies.

On The Other Hand, The Nrn Rockies/High Plains Should See Highs 10-20f Below Normal On Wed Followed By A Warming Trend.


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