US Extended Forecast thru Jun 21

Overview And Preferences...

Over The Past Day Guidance Has Settled Into Reasonable Agreement
With Respect To The Amplified Trough Over The West As Of
Tue-Wed... But By Mid-Late Period A Moderate Amount Of Spread
Develops As This Trough Energy Ejects Ewd In Response To A Nern
Pac Trough Approaching The West Coast.

Farther Ewd A Cntrl Canada Ridge May Connect With An E-Cntrl Conus Ridge For A Time With This Combination Of Ridges Supporting A Nern Conus Mean Trough.

Currently The Most Common Theme Among Guidance Is Toward Slower Ejection Of Wrn Energy And More Nern Troughing Than Depicted In Gfs Runs Since The 12z Cycle.

Guidance Evaluation...

Models/Ensembles Have Settled Into Good Agreement With Most
Aspects Of The Amplified Wrn Trough/Embedded Nrn Rockies Low Early In The Period But It Will Likely Take Further Time For Them To
Resolve What This Energy Will Do As It Heads Into The Downstream
Ridge.

Current Solns Are Suggesting That Some Of The Energy Will Lift Nwd Into Canada While The Rest Will Gradually Reach The Plains Psbly As A Compact Closed Low.

Confidence Is Typically Below Avg When Dealing With Trough Energy Heading Into Mean Ridges... And While The Best Combination Of Consensus/Recent Trends/Biases Suggest An Evolution That Is Slower Than Recent Gfs Runs The New 00z Ecmwf Has Adjusted Somewhat Faster.

Along With A Relatively Slow Ejection Of Wrn Trough Energy There
Is A Developing Non-Gfs Consensus Toward Moderate Nern Conus
Troughing... With Hudson Bay Sfc High Pressure Psbly Building
Sufficiently Far Swd To Make It Difficult For Sfc Low Pressure Assoc With The Wrn Trough To Reach Much Farther Nwd Than The Nrn
Plains Or Upr Ms Vly.

However Just The Past Couple Ecmwf Runs Illustrate The Remaining Uncertainty In The Ultimate Strength Of The Nern Trough Aloft And Trailing Sfc High Pressure.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Upr System Initially Over The West And Slow Moving Sfc Low Pres Over The Plains Will Support A Broad Area Of Pcpn... Some
Locally Hvy... From Nrn Parts Of The West Through The Nrn Plains
With Dynamics Aloft And/Or Low Lvl Upslope Flow Enhancing Activity
At Some Locations.

Snow Is Psbl At Highest Elevs.

Potential For One Or More Episodes Of Shwrs/Tstms Will Also Extend Beyond The Upr Ms Vly Through The Northeast/Mid Atlc In Assoc With A Mean Frontal Bndry Whose Ern Portion Should Drop Into The Mid Atlc By Late In The Week.

Meanwhile Flow Around A Deep Layer Ridge Over The Southeast May Bring Some Mstr Into Portions Of The Srn Plains While Localized Boundaries Will Likely Serve As The Best Focus For Diurnal Convection Over The Southeast.

For Temps... The Upr Trough Over The West Will Support One Or Two Days Of Highs Up To 10-20f Below Normal Early In The Period In Nrn-Cntrl Interior Locations.

Warmest Readings Relative To Normal Should Extend From The Cntrl-Srn Mid Atlc/Carolinas Into The Midwest With One Or More Days With Plus 5-10f Anomalies.


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