US Extended Forecast thru Jun 2

...Model Preferences/Uncertainty Assessment...

A Composite Of The 12 Utc Gfs/Ecmwf/Canadian And Gfs/Ecmwf
Ensemble Means Seems To Offer Reasonable Flow Depiction With Close To Average Predictability Beyond Ample Smaller Scale Convective Influences Days 3-5 Thu-Sat.

Rapidly Increasing Forecast Spread And Uncertainty Lends Minimal Choice Support Beyond An Ensemble Mean Approach Into Days 6/7 Sun/Next Mon.

Tended To Still Favor A Solution Just On The Amplified Side Of The Full Envelope Of Guidance With Respect To Pattern Continuity.

...Pattern/Sensible Weather Overview...

An Amplified Pattern Aloft Should Favor Appreciable Warmth / Humidity Beneath A Central Us Upper-Level Ridge...And Ocean
Influences/Cooler Sensible Weather Conditions Embedded Within
Troughs Positioned Along Both The West Coast And From The
Northeast Into The Canadian Maritimes.

A Noteable Exception To This Pattern Is Over The S-Central States
Where Prevailing Conditions Will Be Dominated By A Very
Slow-Moving But Weakening Mid-Level Closed Low And Its Chaotic But Locally Heavy Convective Pattern Into The Weekend.

The Trapped Mid-Level Circulation Then Dissipates...But Not Before Dumping More Rain Across Ern Ok/Tx...The Southern Ozarks And The Lower 1/3rd Of The Ms Valley.

Meanwhile...Impulses Riding Through The Unsettled Wrn Us Trough
Eject Around The Building Central Us Ridge And Toward A Downstream Mean Trough Position To Support A Local Convection / Mcs Threat Out From The Rocky States And Rolling From The N-Central States Sewd Over The E-Central Us As Moisture Intercepts A Wavy And Slow Moving Frontal Zone.

Weather Focus Later Shifts More To The Intermountain West And
Desert Sw From The Weekend Into Early Next Week In Transitional
Flow With An Inland Track Of Ample Mid-Upper Level Trough
Energies.

The S-Central Rockies/Great Basin And Desert Sw Will Notice Some Increased Moisture/Clouds And Emerging Elevation Based
Convection.


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