US Extended Forecast thru Jun 15


Progressive Pattern Is Still Favored Over The Conus But With
Relatively Distinct Features Through The Period.

Higher Latitudes Still Show Blocking Ridging Near The Davis Strait As Well As Retrograding/Reforming Just South Of The Central Aleutians While Lower Latitudes Show A Persistent Ridge Over West Central Mexico And Over The Bermuda Triangle Region.

This Supports Three Or Four Systems Across The Conus With Generally Variable/Up-And-Down Temperatures And Widespread Precip Chances Outside The Sw States.

Model Preferences/Uncertainty Assessment/Weather Highlights...

Ensembles And Operational Models Were In Good Agreement Through Yesterday But Have Since Become Less Agreeable.

Cutoff/Closed Low Initially Near Mo Wed/D3 Should Drift Toward The
Great Lakes And Weaken As It Mostly Gets Infused Into The Northern
Stream Shortwave Moving Along The Us/Canadian Border... Which
Lifts Through Ontario/Quebec As Heights Remain Near 582 Dm Over
Eastern New England.

Ecmwf Has Been Consistent For Several Runs With The Main Sfc Cyclone Over Nw Mn On Thu/D4 And The Old Lead Low Over The U.P. Of Mi.

Tail End Of The Front Should Be Enough Of A Trigger With Low Level Southerly Flow Out Of The Western Gulf To Allow For A Widespread Area Of Precip Over The Southern Plains And Into The Ms Valley... But Perhaps Not A Heavy Widespread Rain.

Of Course... Things Will Be Modulated By Afternoon Convection And/Or
Mcs Development.

Next Incoming Upper Low From The Ne Pac Has Maintained Its Timing Along Wa/Bc Fri/D5 Then Through Southern Canada Thereafter.. Dragging Its Sfc Front Through The Central/Northern Rockies And Onto The Plains.

Final System In The Northern Stream Should Lag By About Three Days... Coming Into Wa/Or/Id Late Sat/D6 Into Sun/D7.

Upstream Flow Over Ak Is Fairly Uncertain By Then... So Confidence
In Timing/Amplitude Is No Better Than Average.

Western Troughing Should Bring Some Much Cooler Temperatures To The Pac Nw And Interior... Generally 4-8 Deg F Below Climo.

Gfs Continues To Signal Some Sort Of Tropical Or Quasi-Hybrid
System Moving Northeastward From The Yucatan This Coming
Weekend... But Has Been Forecasting This At The "Day 6-7" Period
For Several Days.

Only Today Does It Have A Little More Support... Just Above Zero... Per A Few Gefs/Cmc Members And The Operational Canadian But About 36 Hrs Quicker.

Coordination With Nhc Has Downplayed This Potential System For The Past Few Days.

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