US Extended Forecast thru Jul 26 updated

During The Seven Day Period Ridging Intensifies And Then Persists In Two Locations...The Aleutians And The Southwest U.S.

Our Various Tools...The Models Along With Arguments Based On Wave Spacing... Teleconnections... And Persistence ...Support The Notion Of Pronounced Troughing Between The Two Ridge Centers And Downstream Over Eastern North America. The Shortwave Details And Depth Within The Troughs Offer More Challenges...But We Have Moderate To High Confidence In The Timing Of The Next Cycle Of Pattern Amplification.

By Day 5...The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Develops Lower Heights Than Most Guidance In The Eastern U.S.. This Causes Us To Go Ahead And Push This Late-Period System Along More Quickly ...Including Its Associated Surface Front In The Eastern U.S.

The Pacific Northwest System On Days 3/4...At 1.5 Standard Deviations Below Climatology In The Height Field...And With Precipitable Water Above 1 Inch...Is Likely To Produce Increased
Thunderstorm Coverage And Intensity. This May Hamper Ongoing Wildfire Fighting Efforts Given Recent Hot Weather And A Number Of Ongoing Fires.

Farther Ewd... Early In The Period Guidance Continues To Highlight The Upr Ms Vly/Grtlks Area With The Best Potential For Some Locally Hvy Convection Along A Wavy Front That Should Then Continue Toward The East Coast. Uncertain Details Sfc/Aloft After Midweek Lead To Reduced Confidence In Pinpointing Any Other Favored Areas For Heavier Rnfl Along The Front.

Highest Anomalies For Temps E Of The Rockies Should Be With Mins Over/Near The Upr Ms Vly / Grtlks Tue-Wed With Some Plus 10-15f Departures Psbl.

Portions Of The Southeast May See Locally Hvy Diurnal Convection With A Stnry Front Over The Area During The First Half Of The Period And One Or More Impulses Aloft Providing Some Added Focus.

By Late In The Period Sern Conus Activity May Depend In Part On The Uncertain Details Of The Amplifying Ern Trough Aloft.


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