US Extended Forecast thru Jul 20

...Heavy Rain Possible Near The Tx/Ok Border Mid/Late Week...

A More Typical Summertime Pattern Should Resume Over The Conus Late In The Week After The Deep Trough Lifts Out Of The Great Lakes / Northeast Midweek. The Models/Ensembles Have Largely Been In Line For Several Cycles In The East Which Will Carry The Sfc Front Slowly Offshore New England And The Mid-Atlantic Before Being Blocked By Strong Atlantic Ridging... With A 6000m Closed High Near 36n/50w.

Over The Ne Pac And Into British Columbia... The Models Have Shown Rather Poor Continuity With The Handling Of Short Waves Cruising Through The Gulf Of Alaska Downstream Of A Weakening Upper Low Near The Central Aleutians.

With The Strengthening Of Eastern Pacific Ridging... Albeit Briefly... Troughing Should Be Allowed To Swing Through The Pac Nw But Not As Deeply As Some Earlier Gfs/Gefs Forecasts... Since It Is July After All And Quite Difficult To Get A Substantial Trough Into The Great Basin.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

Big Story Continues To Be The Anomalous Cooling In The Central Plains And Toward The East... With 850 Temp Stnd Anomalies In The -3 To -3.5 Range Yielding Sfc Temps About 20-30f Cooler Than
Average. Daily Record Cool High Temps Should Be Challenged In Many Locations.

Flip Side Will Be The Heat In The Pac Nw... Which Will Fade By The End Of The Week Once Troughing Enters The Region. Temps Should Modify By Next Weekend East Of The Rockies But Still Average Just Below Climo.

Precipitation Will Be Tied To The Unusually Far South Frontal Progression ... Nearly To The Gulf Coast... That Should Get Hung Up Over Texas And Also The Nc/Sc/Coasts.

Nw Flow Aloft Along With Additional Shortwave Energy Pushing Through The Region... Along With Well Above Climo Pw Values... Should Focus Precip Over Much Of The Same Area For The End Of The Week. Guidance Has Been Showing Several Inches... Up To Ten... In Just A 48-Hr Period. The Ensemble Models Have Been Increasing As Well... Now Up To About 3.50/2.50 Inches Per The Gefs / Ecens Means... Respectively Late Wed To Late Fri.

By The Weekend... Heights Will Rise And The Sfc Front Should Dissipate And The Heavy Precip Potential Should Moves East Into The Lower Ms And Tn Valleys... With Lower Amounts.


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