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US Extended Forecast thru Jul 13

Over The Past 1-2 Days There Has Been A Significant Trend In
Guidance Toward A Flatter/Faster Depiction Of Trough Energy
Reaching The Bc Coast As Of The Start Of The Fcst Early Wed.

After That Point The Two Ecmwf Runs Before The Current 00z Version
Had Become Quite Amplified Versus Consensus Across The Nrn Tier
States In The Process Of Reinforcing A Longer Term Ern Noam Trough While Rebuilding A Wrn Noam Ridge.

To What Extent Typhoon Neoguri... Fcst To Be Near Japan Wed-Fri... Affects The Pattern Remains A Question Mark But Guidance Currently Does Not Seem To Show A Lot Of Spread In The Large Scale Pattern As A Direct Result Of Track/Timing Diffs For Neoguri.

In The Smaller Scale... Significant Spread Arises With A Compact Upr Low Over The Alaska Peninsula And Gulf Of Alaska/Extreme Nern Pac Early In The Period. All the Models Bring This Feature Into Wrn Canada. The 00z Gfs/Gefs Mean Become Quite Slow With This Upr Low... Ultimately Causing Flow From The Nern Pac Across Noam To Trend Out Of Phase Relative To Most Other Solns.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

One Focus For Convection Will Be The Wavy Sfc Front Settling Over
Portions Of The East Coast/South/Back Into The Plains And Eventually Returning Nwd As A Warm Front. Currently Expect Highest Rnfl Totals Over Parts Of The Mid Atlc And South. To The S Of The Front Fl Should See Diurnal Convection With Some Locally Hvy Rnfl.

Cool High Pressure Behind The Front Should Bring One Or More Days Of Pleasant Weather To Areas From The Midwest Into The
Northeast Before The Front Lifts Nwd Later In The Period.

The Front Fcst To Drop Sewd From The Nrn Plains During The Latter Half Of The Period Will Serve As Another Focus For Shwrs/Tstms.

Activity Assoc With The Southwest Monsoon Should Be Best Organized Over The Cntrl-Srn Rockies And More Sct Farther Wwd.

Trends Toward Maintaining Somewhat Higher Hgts Aloft May Lead To Greater Persistence Of Above Normal Temps Over The Interior West.

Meanwhile Portions Of The Plains Should See A Warming Trend After
Near To Below Normal Highs Early In The Period.


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