US Extended Forecast thru Jul 11

...Southwest Monsoon Emerges In Earnest...

The Global Numerical Models Indicate A Persistent Trough Over
Eastern North America And A Much More Robust Upper Ridge Over The West.

For The Last Several Weeks, Considerable Pacific Energy Has Kept The Flow Suppressed Across The Northwest, With Maritime Polar Airmasses Filtering Through Much Of The Great Basin.

In The Second Week Of July, It Looks As If The Western Ridge Will Find Its Climatological Home--At Least For The Time Being.

Deep-Layer Moisture Looks Poised To Be Drawn Into Southern Arizona From The Tropics By Mid Period--Fueling The Seasonal Monsoon.

The Unseasonably Displaced Polar Front In The East Will Continue
To Focus Organized Convection Over Many Areas There.

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