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US Extended Forecast thru Jan 5

...Snow And Bitter Cold To Grip Much Of The Northeast Late In The
Week...

Relied On The 12z/28 European Centre Ensemble Mean As A Synoptic Guide This Forecast. That Particular Mean Affords A Smoother Transition From Yesterday's Manual Progs Than The 00z/29 Versions--Ecens, Gefs, Cmce.

While All Of The Global Numerical Models Agree On A Sharp Arctic Outbreak From The Upper Midwest To The Interior Northeast After The Turn Of The Year.

The Solution Spread With Regard To The Shortwave Interplay Over The Eastern States Is Still Large--Disconcertingly So Given The Winter Weather Impact This Event Is Capable Of Delivering.

If There Is A Trend To Be Gleaned From The Last 24 Hours Of Guidance, It Would Be The Tipping Of The Scales Toward Miller-B-Type Cyclogenesis--E.G., Multiple Low Pressure Centers Divided By The Appalachian Mountain Chain.

The Denoted Complexity Of Miller-B-Type Systems Makes Forecasting The Attendant Hazards Far Dicier Than Miller-A-Types--One Low Tracking From The Gulf Of Mexico Up The Atlantic Coast.

In General, The Climatology Of Miller-B-Types Reveals Increasing Incidence Of Heavy Snowfall Northward And Eastward Along The Atlantic Coast--Under The Comma Head Track Of The Composite Cyclone.

The Shortwave Energy Likely To Comprise The Upcoming System Hails From Both Sides Of The Split Flow Over Alaska And The Yukon. The Data Dearth Over The North Pacific And Arctic Oceans Is Most Probably The Big Muddling Factor.

Things Should Come Into Better Focus Once The Energy Of Origin Is Better Read.

The Full-Latitude Split Along The West Coast Of North America Will
Continue To Keep The Southwestern United States Dry. The Pacific
Northwest Will Be Grazed By Energy Wiggling Through The Split.

Late In The Period, The Next Major Shortwave Interaction Should
Occur Over The Great Plains.

For Now, Will Rely On The Robust Agreement Among The Various Ensemble Means That Depict Continued Northern Stream Dominance.


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