US Extended Forecast thru Jan 26

Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
1059 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2014
Valid 12z Wed Jan 22 2014 - 12z Sun Jan 26 2014

...Overview And Preferences...

Amplified Ridge/Trough Pattern Will Remain In Place... But Models/ Ensembles Continue To Waver On Embedded Shortwaves In The
East And The Renegade Weakening Closed Low In The West.

The Ecens And Naefs Means /Aided By The Canadian Ensemble Members/ Maintain The Ridging Along The Western North American Coast Longer Than The 00z-06z Gefs Mean Does Through Next Weekend... And Given The Strength Of The Ridge And Model Biases Will Continue To Maintain Above Average Heights Through The Pac Nw/Bc Into Eastern Ak Until There Becomes A Clear Signal That This Persistent/Impressive Ridging Will Finally Break Down.

The 00z Ecmwf Clusters Well With Its Ensemble Mean And Was Used To Add Detail To The Forecast Throughout The Period.

In The West... The Models And Even Ensembles Have Been All But A
Complete Disappointment In The Handling Of Splitting Energy Coming Out Of The Ne Pacific... Yet Again Shifting Their Forecast Since 24 Hrs Ago.

Latest 00z Ensembles Seem To Cluster Near A 00z Ecmwf/Gfs Compromise... But Spread Remains Uncomfortably High For A Day 3 Forecast.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

No Real Change In The Effects... Above Normal Temperatures In The
West With A General Offshore Flow.

More Record High Temperatures Are Possible.

The Mid-Level Feature May Or May Not Allow For Sufficient Mixing Of Deep/Cold Valleys In The Interior... So Temperature Forecasts Show A Large Spread.

Precip Will Be Generally Light And Focused Over Wa And The Northern Rockies Then Southeastward But Will Dependent On The Strength/Track Of The Poorly Forecast Upper Low.

Back East... Cold And Blustery West To Northwest Flow With Lake-Effect Snows For The Great Lakes And Sub-Zero Reading Likely Across The Northern Tier.

Reinforcing Cold Should Push Through Mn/Wi/Mi This Coming Weekend.

The Strong Ridging To The West Will Help Maintain A Rather Sharp Temperature Gradient Back Through The High Plains.

Along The Gulf Coast... Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Have Been More Bullish On Precip All Along With A Lingering Sfc Boundary Moving Into Fl Before Coalescing Offshore Sun/D7.


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