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US Extended Forecast thru Jan 12

Pattern Overview...

A More Progressive Flow Off The Pacific Migrates Across The Lower
48 This Forecast Period With Temperatures Adjusting Closer To
Normal Values...If Not Above Normal For This Time Of Year.

Preferences/Uncertainty Assessment...

With The Very Cold Canadian Vortex/Upper-Level Trough Lifting Into
The Davis Strait And Baffin Island On Day 3...Attention Turns To
The Midwest...Plains And Pacific Northwest For Days 4 And 5 As A
Series Of Shortwaves Eject Eastward.

By Days 6-7...Intense Shortwave Energy Migrates Into The Pacific Northwest...With Widespread Wind And Much-Needed Rain For The West Coast.

Across The Plains And Midwest...A System Originating In South
Central Rockies...Maintains Some Separation From The Upper-Level
Trough In Eastern Canada And Migrates East Northeastward Through
The Ozarks...Ohio Valley And New England Days 3-4...While A System
In The Northeast Pacific Is Poised To Dig Southeastward Through The Pacific Northwest And Great Basin Days 4-5.

Of The 5/00z Deterministic Guidance...The Gfs/Ecmwf/Ukmet Offered
A Reasonable Solution Through Day 4 Across The Central States... Sweeping A Warm Front And Mid-Level Warm Advection Precipitation Through The Ohio Valley--Atop A Broad Surface Ridge Planted In The Northeast And Mid-Atlantic Region.

In Particular...The 5/00z Ecmwf-Ukmet Maintained Very Good Continuity With The Previous Set Of Wpc Surface-500mb Graphics Through Mid-Point Day 5 (10/12z).

The 5/00z Gfs Offered An Extra Shortwave In The Mid-Missouri Valley At 10/12z. This Looks Out Of Place With The Stream Separation Expected For Much Of The West And Southern Plains--Day 5 And Beyond.

Likewise...The 5/00z Gfs...Which Completely Gave Up On The Closed 500mb Low Solution Over The Lower Colorado River Basin...Was Too Strong And Progressive With The Northern Stream Shortwave.

It May Be Nothing More Than A Pronounced Warm Front And Could Be Ruled Out As A Solution That Would Add Details To The Day 5-6 Forecast In The Upper Midwest.

The 5/06z Gfs Fare Much Better...But Wpc Utilized The 5/00z Ec Ensemble Means And Deterministic Run To Capture The General Procession Of Pacific Lows Spawning Off The Oregon Coast This Forecast Package.

Sensible Weather Highlights...

The Latter Half Of The Forecast Period Should Be Very Active For
The Pacific Northwest With Surface Cyclogenesis Off The Oregon/ Washington Coast.

Significant Precipitation And Occasionally Strong Winds Are Anticipated.

Cutoff Low Migrating Very Slowly Across The Rio Grande Valley Will
Gradually Work Western Gulf Of Mexico Moisture Into The Southern
Plains And Lower-To-Mid Missouri Valley Late In The Period.


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