US Extended Forecast thru Jan 11

Models And Ensembles Offer A Reasonably Similar Larger Scale
Medium Range Pattern Evolution.

High Amplitude Mid-Upper Level Flow In The Short Range Is Highlighted By A Mean Ridge Worked Into Wrn Noam...Albeit With Embedded Impusles...And Yet Another Bone Cracking Cold Trough Over East-Central Noam.

The Latest Arctic Chill Modifies Quickly And Starkly Next Week Consistent With Rapid Flow Deamplification Mid-Late Next Week With Transition To One With More Chaotic And Progressive Embedded Systems Leading To A More Muddled And Unsettled Wrn Us Regime.

This Occurs As Heights Rise Significantly Over Ern Noam At The Expense Of Mean Trough Building Back Over The West-Central Us As Ern Pacific Energies Tend To Dig More Ernestly.

Despite Seemingly Decent Larger Scale Predictability...There Remains Ample Forecast Spread With Respect To Small-Mid Scale Flow Characteristics Including Embedded System Emphasis / Timing And The Eventual Extent Of Flow Separation.

This Includes Late Week Closed Low Weather Focus Potential Over The Swrn Us/Nrn Mex Then Eventual Srn Plains Gulf Moisture Inflow / Qpf Enhancement As Lead System Energies Continue Newd Out Through The Central To Nern Us.

The Last Couple Ecmwf Runs Best Champion A Closed Srn Stream
Feature Along With A Cluster Of Ecmwf Ensemble Members.

While Support Also Exists From Yesterdays Gfs Runs...The Latest Few Gfs Runs Including Especially The 18 Utc Gfs Have Trended Toward Less Stream Separation And More Progression. This Coupled With The Lack Of A Very Highly Amplified Upstream Ridge...Numerous Embedded Impulses With Hard To Diagnose Wavelength Spacing/Effect...And The Uncertainty Of Transitional Flow Causes Some Pause.

Accordingly...Prefer An Ensemble Mean Approach For Wpc Progs
Leaning Heavily On Guidance From The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean That
Offers Better Albeit Modest Flow Separation And Wpc Continuity Than The Latest Gfs/Naefs Ensemble Means.


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