US Extended Forecast thru Feb 8

...Messy Forecast For The Midwest Into The Northeast Tue-Wed...

...Overview And Preferences...

Large-Scale Flow Will Be Dominated By Strong Upper Ridging Over
Far Northeastern Russia... Spread E-W Between 120e And 140w And
N-S Between 35n And The North Pole.

Its Expansiveness Will Favor Troughing Over Most Of The Conus In A Much Stormier/Wetter Pattern Than In Recent Weeks.

The Ecens Means Continues To Offer Good Continuity... And Again Based The Forecast On A Blend Of It With The 12z/31 Ecmwf And 12z/31 Naefs Mean.

The Canadian Ensembles Cluster Nearer To The Ecmwf Ensembles While The Gefs Ensembles Tended To Lag Behind. The Pattern... While Fairly Amplified... Does Not Suggest Quite As Slow A Progression As The Gefs Mean But Incorporating Some Of Its Solution Via The Naefs Mean Offered A Hedge Toward Its Forecast.

Sfc Pattern Will Carry Two Potentially Significant Systems Out Of The Sw States Through The Mid-Ms Valley And Into The Northeast.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

The West... Outside Much Of Central/Southern California... Will See Widespread Light Precipitation As Energy Dives Southward Then

Given The Source Region /Canada/ And Not The Subtropics... Nothing More Than Some Literal Drops In The Bucket Can Be Expected Over Many Areas.

Favored Terrain Locations Should Do Better But Generally Less Than A Quarter Inch Days 4-5 West Of The Divide.

Northeasterly Flow Should Help Bring In A Chilly Airmass To The Pac Nw With Temps 10-20f Below Climo.

Another System But Of Pacific Origin May Creep Closer To The Coast Next Sat/D7.

In The Central/Eastern Conus... Initial Miller-B System Will Push
Northward Through The Tn And Eastern Oh Valleys As The Coastal Low Develops Offshore The Delmarva/Nj... Which Will Eventually Take
Over And Slide Northeastward.

Cold Air Damming Will Make For A Slow/Messy Transition To Rain South Of The Mason-Dixon Line Depending On The Strength Of Each Low And The Stubbornness Of The Lower Level Cold Air.

Healthy Swath Of Snow Can Be Expected To The North Of The Sfc Low Deeper In The Cold Air.

Cold Canadian High Pressure Will Follow Behind That System Keeping Temps Below Climo Nearly Conus-Wide Except For South Florida As The Polar Front Lifts Back Northward.

By Fri-Sat/D6-7... Ensembles Diverge On The Speed Of The Western Trough As It Heads Eastward.

For Now... Ensembles Suggest Another Miller-B System To Lift Northeastward Similar To The Tue-Wed Event Though There Is Plenty Of Spread.

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